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报告摘要

FYSA Summary: February 2014

Core Content

FYSA (For Your Situational Awareness) is a monthly publication by the International Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), providing analysis and insights on U.S. security policy and related issues. The February 2014 issue focuses on U.S. security strategy toward China, the evolving situation in Turkey, and the FY15 budget request as a pivotal moment for defense reform and strategic alignment.

Upcoming Events

PONIBRACKFASTWITH GREGWEAVER
- Date: Tuesday, February 25, 2014
- Time: 9:00 a.m.-10:30 a.m.
- Location: CSIS, 1616 Rhode Island Ave., NW
MILITARY STRATEGY FORUM: PRESENCE MATTERS
- Featured: Secretary of the Navy Ray Mabus
- Date: Friday, February 28, 2014
- Time: 10:00 a.m.-11:00 a.m.
- Location: CSIS, 1616 Rhode Island Ave., NW

Recent Events

JOINT THINK TANK EVENT: ALTERNATIVES TO THE QDR AND FY15 DEFENSE BUDGET
- Experts from four think tanks discussed alternatives to the Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR) and the FY15 defense budget.
MILITARY STRATEGY FORUM: A DISCUSSION ON THE AIR FORCE NUCLEAR ENTERPRISE
- Moderated by Kathleen Hicks, featuring Secretary Deborah Lee James and Lt Gen Stephen W. Wilson.
LEVERAGING CIVIL SOCIETY IN AFGHANISTAN
- Hosted by Robert Lamb, featuring General John R. Allen and the report's authors.
WAR FRONT TO STORE FRONT: AMERICANS REBUILDING TRUST AND HOPE IN NATIONS UNDER FIRE
- Moderated by David Berteau, featuring author Paul Brinkley.

Key Insights from the Director's Chair

Kathleen Hicks highlights three main touchstones for U.S. security strategy toward China:

Interwoven Strategy and Policy
- U.S. security strategy and policy toward China should be more aligned both horizontally (across trade, diplomacy, and military) and vertically (within the military, linking concepts, capabilities, and posture to policy goals).
- There is a need to address the potential for conflict with China and not assume it away due to cost-saving incentives or fear of confrontation.
Avoiding Inevitability of Conflict
- War between the U.S. and China is not inevitable. The U.S.-built international system provides value to China, including protection of energy supplies and promotion of global trade.
- The U.S. should remind China of these benefits to reinforce its strategic position.
Effectiveness in Foreign Policy
- The U.S. must be effective in foreign policy, not just liked. This involves clear and credible demonstrations of U.S. interests in the Pacific.
- Failing to communicate U.S. interests in East Asia risks eroding credibility and power over time.

Managing Turkey Ties in Tough Times

Samuel J. Brannen discusses the deteriorating democratic situation in Turkey and its implications for U.S. relations:

Turkey has moved away from democracy, with Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan consolidating power and undermining press freedom and judicial independence.
The country's foreign policy has become inward-looking and at odds with its long-term strategic interests.
Despite this, Turkey remains strategically important for the U.S., particularly in the context of Syria and NATO.
The U.S. must clearly express concern over Turkey's internal politics and policy choices to maintain its alliance with Ankara.

FY15 Budget Request: A Crucial Opportunity

Ryan A. Crotty emphasizes the importance of the FY15 budget request:

The budget request, submitted on March 4, 2014, offers a chance to focus on significant policy issues rather than budgetary technicalities.
It is a key moment to align strategy and resources for the next five years, especially given the concurrent QDR and National Security Strategy.
The fragile budget agreement of December 2013 is at risk of derailment due to unfunded priorities from the services and combatant commanders.
The FYDP (2016-2019) may not comply with the BCA baseline, leading to misalignment between strategy and resources.

Reality Check: Shaping an Affordable Military for 2021

Angela Weaver outlines the challenges and priorities for the U.S. military in 2021:

The Budget Control Act of 2011 will result in a 21% reduction in the defense budget by 2021, with an additional 18% reduction due to internal cost growth.
This will make the actual reduction feel like 40%, necessitating hard choices and potential strategic adjustments.
The Affordable Military Working Group at CSIS has analyzed the requirements for a 2021 affordable military, emphasizing readiness, strategic guidance, and adaptation to new security environments (e.g., cyberspace and space).
A 5% budget cut was proposed to create a flexible wedge for future strategic refinements.

In the News

David Berteau criticizes the deep cuts from sequestration, calling them damaging and unwise.
Sam Brannen notes the growing influence of Fethullah Gulen in Turkish politics despite his exile.
Robert Ogden criticizes the DoD's across-the-board budget cuts as based on flawed assumptions.

Congressional Testimony

Sharon Squassoni testified before the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations about improving nonproliferation standards through civilian nuclear cooperation agreements.

Recent Publications

South Asia Regional Dynamics and Strategic Concerns (Robert Lamb, Sadika Hameed, and Kathryn Mixon)
CSIS European Trilateral Track II Nuclear Dialogue: 2013 Consensus Statement (Clark Murdock and Franklin Miller)
Is Revised COIN Manual Backed by Political Will? (Robert Lamb and Brooke Shawn)
French Counterterrorism in the Sahel (Stephanie Sanok Kostro and Meredith Boyle)
2014 Olympics Terror Threat: The Hunt for Black Widows (Stephanie Sanok Kostro and Garrett Riba)