2022-02-08-蒙田研究所-脱碳航空业_全体上船（英）_89页_2mb

Decarbonizing Aviation: All Aboard Summary

Aviation's Strategic Importance

• Air transport is crucial for Europe's economy (€991 billion GDP contribution), tourism (supports ~44.8M jobs), and strategic future, despite reduced pre-COVID traffic forecasts (8% below 2050 target due to COVID-19 crisis).
• Emissions: 2-3% of global CO₂, 10% of transport emissions.
• Emission reduction: Decoupled from passenger growth since 1990 due to aircraft efficiency improvements. 58% of emissions from long-haul (>1,500 km).

Existing Environmental Policies and Impact

• Increasing environmental pressure due to climate concerns and negative public perception (e.g., 51% French oppose flying for leisure).
• Aviation under two main ETS systems: EU ETS (covers EU aviation and some sectors) and CORSIA (international offsets). These need tightening consistency with the 2050 Net Zero goal and extending to domestic non-EU aviation.

Decarbonization Trajectory and Scenarios (Focus: ATAG Waypoint 2050 Scenario 3 - 53% SAF, 34% Technology, 7% Operations/Infrastructure, 6% Offsetting)

• Technology: Incremental (engine efficiency, lightweight materials, digitalization) and Disruptive (Hybrid-Electric, Hydrogen power, New Aircraft Architectures).
• Operations & Infrastructure: Air traffic optimization (Single European Sky, Continuous Descent/Ascent), Ground ops improvement (APU reduction, single-engine taxiing, GPU), Optimized flight paths, Wake energy recovery.
• Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAF): Key to decarbonization, blending (e.g., 63% by 2050, 28% e-fuel); feedstock sustainability criteria, development mandate via incentives (e.g., EU, US, UK).
• Other Measures: Mitigation Systems (Carbon capture).

Recommendations

• 1. Accelerate Decarbonization Actions:
  • Incremental savings (efficiency, hybridization) through sustained R&D.
  • Maintain R&D investment trajectory for disruptive technologies (e.g., geared engines, electric motors, hydrogen aircraft).
  • Prepare ICAO-level certification frameworks for innovative technologies.
• 2. Facilitate Aircraft Fleet Renewal:
  • Use EU Taxonomy for sustainable investment funding.
  • Employ surcharge mechanisms to incentivize replacing old aircraft.
• 3. Implement Operational Improvements:
  • Go all-out for operational improvements (Fleet renewal, flight ops, ground ops) to significantly boost savings (~7%).
  • Promote intermodality (train-air connections).
• 4. Scale Up Sustainable Aviation Fuels:
  • Finance functional prototype projects for biofuel and synfuel.
  • Launch Calls for Proposals/Crash programs to boost European SAF competitiveness and launch the first production units.
  • Dynamically adapt blend trajectories and provide blended SAF price support.
• 5. Clarify & Expand SAF Mandates and Criteria:
  • Establish ICAO-level SAF sustainability criteria (LCA analysis, feedstock type).
  • Include hydrogen fuel under SAF to support broader decarbonization.
• 6. Subsidize SAF Competitiveness:
  • Offer tax credits/trim other costs for higher-blend SAF.
• 7. Limit Competition Distortions:
  • Establish a European compensation mechanism for journeys departing the EU, proportional to distance and subsidizing SAF blending cost at no extra cost.
  • Define blended SAF in proportion to the distance traveled and country of departure, allowing for tiered implementation speeds between regions.
• 8. Align Carbon Allowance Systems:
  • Ensure CORSIA and EU-ETS align with Net Zero goals.
  • Extend their scope (incl. domestic non-EU flights).
• 9. Act Now on Sustainable Market Mechanisms:
  • Encourage (ETS-style) mechanisms globally to cover domestic emissions.
• 10. Establish Hydrogen Clusters and SAF Production:
  • Fund hydrogen (PtL) and SAF production for industrial-scale rollout.
• 11. Implement a Massive Investment Policy for Decarbonized Energy:
  • Triple power investment independently to support the carbon transition, vital to the aviation effort.

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