2016年全球奢侈品消费需求报告（英文版）_26页_1mb

Summary: Who Buys Where - Decrypting Cross-Border Luxury Demand Flows

Core Content

This document explores the cross-border dynamics of luxury goods demand, analyzing where and by whom luxury products are purchased globally. It is part of a series aimed at providing a deeper understanding of the real nature of luxury demand and its implications for investors. The analysis is based on data from both digital and physical retail channels, combined with insights from ContactLab, offering a detailed breakdown of luxury spend by nationality across all geographies.

Main Points

• Global Overview: In 2015, 30% of luxury goods were purchased abroad, with significant interchange between Asia and Europe.
• Five Key Clusters:
  1. USA, Japan, and Korea:
     • These countries have relatively limited cross-border luxury spending.
     • Domestic purchases account for over 90% of luxury spend in the USA and Japan, and 80% in South Korea.
     • Foreigners account for only 5–15% of luxury sales in these regions.
     • The USA represents 31% of the global luxury market, Japan 8%, and South Korea 4%.
  2. Europe (France, Italy, Spain, Switzerland, UK):
     • European consumers primarily buy luxury goods domestically, with 85–95% of purchases in their home countries.
     • Foreigners account for the bulk of luxury sales in these countries, ranging from 70–80%.
     • France and Italy each represent 7% of the global luxury market, while Spain accounts for around 1%.
     • The UK and Switzerland are less extreme, with 80–85% of domestic purchases and 50–55% of sales coming from foreign buyers.
  3. Hong Kong and Macau:
     • These regions are the most extreme in terms of inflows, with over 80% of domestic demand and 90% of sales coming from foreign buyers.
     • Despite a decline in their share of global luxury sales to foreigners (from ~37% in 2013 to ~25% in 2015), they remain significant hubs.
     • Chinese consumers shifted their spending from Hong Kong and Macau to other regions, reducing their share of luxury spend in these areas.
     • Hong Kong and Macau combined represent 3% of the global luxury market.
  4. Emerging Markets (EMs):
     • EMs are the largest contributors to international luxury sales.
     • Russia is the most extreme, with 2/3 of its luxury spend going abroad, and only 5% of inflows.
     • China accounts for over 40% of its luxury purchases abroad, with almost no inflows.
     • Brazil, India, Mexico, and Taiwan have similar patterns, with 2/3 of luxury spending staying domestic and 5–15% of inflows.
     • China accounts for ~7% of the global luxury market, Russia and Brazil for 1% each, and India, Mexico, and Taiwan combined for 4%.
  5. UAE and the Gulf:
     • These regions have both large inflows and outflows of luxury goods.
     • Half of luxury goods sales are made to overseas consumers, while 50% of UAE and Gulf nationals' purchases are made abroad.
     • Russian and Chinese consumers are the primary spenders in the UAE, while Middle Eastern consumers tend to spend in Europe.
     • The UAE and Gulf combined represent 3% of the global luxury market.

Key Insights

• International Spending Trends: The data indicates that international luxury spending is holding up, with a 5% increase in both domestic and overseas spend in the first four months of 2016.
• China's Shift: Although Chinese overseas spend decreased by 5%, domestic spend increased by 5%, resulting in a net positive.
• Daigou Impact: The rise in Chinese spending in Europe may be attributed to Daigou activity, which is not captured by traditional tax refund systems like Global Blue.
• Implications for Investors: The report suggests that the second half of 2016 could be more positive, especially in light of the Paris terrorist attacks in November 2015, which may have increased demand for European luxury goods.
• Limitations: The analysis is based on a sample of luxury goods companies, and thus may not represent the entire market.

Conclusion

The report provides a detailed analysis of the cross-border demand for luxury goods, highlighting the distinct patterns of consumption across different regions and nationalities. It offers investors a clearer picture of the global market dynamics, emphasizing the importance of understanding the interplay between domestic and international demand. The findings suggest that the luxury market is more resilient than previously feared, with significant opportunities in certain regions.

Contributors and Disclaimer

• The report was prepared by Exane BNP Paribas in collaboration with ContactLab.
• ContactLab provides the data and insights, but does not make investment recommendations.
• The analyses are based on aggregated public materials and a sample of industry players.
• The report is strictly confidential and should not be used without due diligence.
• The report is not subject to the same regulatory requirements as U.S. research analysts.