2014年-世界发展银行全球_Grain_Price_Spikes_and_Beggar-Thy-Neighbor_Policy_Responses___A_Global_Economywide_Analysis_36页_1mb

Summary of "Grain Price Spikes and Beggar-Thy-Neighbor Policy Responses: A Global Economywide Analysis"

Core Content

This paper investigates the impact of national trade policies on international grain price spikes during the period 2006–2008. It uses a global economywide model (GTAP) to analyze how policy actions, such as export restrictions and import tariff reductions, affected the transmission of price shocks across international markets and the resulting economic welfare changes.

Main Points

• Grain Price Spikes and Policy Responses:

  • International grain price spikes in 2006–2008 were exacerbated by national policies aimed at insulating domestic markets.
  • Exporting countries imposed or increased export taxes, while importing countries reduced or suspended import tariffs and sometimes provided import subsidies.
  • These beggar-thy-neighbor policies increased the international price of grain and worsened the terms of trade for food-importing countries.

• Policy Impact on Prices:

  • The study estimates that changes in the National Nominal Rate of Assistance (NRA) contributed to the price rise, with the following proportions:
    • Rice: 34% of the 113% price increase was attributed to NRA changes.
    • Coarse grains: 11% of the 83% price increase was attributed to NRA changes.
    • Wheat: Only 7% of the 70% price increase was attributed to NRA changes.
  • These results suggest that the contribution of policy changes to price spikes is less than previously estimated by back-of-the-envelope (BOTE) models.

• Welfare Implications:

  • The policy-induced changes in trade affected global economic welfare.
  • Global Welfare Gain: The aggregate gain in global economic welfare from NRA changes was approximately $1.0 billion per year in 2007 US dollars.
  • Country-Specific Impacts:
    • Exporters: Gained economic welfare from the terms of trade changes. For example, rice exporters gained $2.3 billion, wheat exporters gained $1.0 billion, and coarse grain exporters gained $2.5 billion.
    • Importers: Suffered losses, with rice importers losing $5.3 billion and coarse grain importers losing $2.6 billion. Wheat importers, however, gained $3.2 billion, largely due to Japan’s reduction in domestic support during the price spike.
  • Developing Countries: Were net importers and thus suffered welfare losses due to the terms of trade shift.
  • High-Income Countries: Benefited from reduced import protection and domestic support, leading to more efficient resource allocation.

• Model and Data:

  • The study uses the GTAP model, which is a multi-commodity, multi-country global computable general equilibrium model.
  • The model incorporates data from the World Bank’s DAI database, which provides more accurate estimates of national trade restrictions and their effects on international prices.
  • The model accounts for supply responses, differing demand elasticities, and non-zero cross-price elasticities, which BOTE models typically ignore.

• Comparison with BOTE Models:

  • The GTAP model results differ from earlier BOTE studies, primarily due to the more comprehensive treatment of market interactions and policy responses.
  • For coarse grains, the GTAP estimates are very close to BOTE results.
  • For rice, the GTAP estimates are about 25% lower than BOTE estimates.
  • For wheat, the GTAP estimates are only about one-third of BOTE estimates.
  • These differences arise because the GTAP model accounts for the net trade changes of each country, while BOTE models assume no supply response and base their estimates on global consumption.

Key Findings

• Need for WTO Disciplines: The paper supports the need for stronger World Trade Organization (WTO) disciplines on export restrictions to prevent beggar-thy-neighbor policies that exacerbate price spikes and harm international welfare.
• Interactions Between Markets: The GTAP model captures the interactions between different grain markets and other agricultural products, providing a more accurate picture of the policy impacts.
• Policy Effectiveness: Insulating domestic markets through trade restrictions is less effective when multiple countries adopt similar policies, as it amplifies the international price spike and worsens the terms of trade for importers.

Conclusion

The study highlights the complex interplay between national trade policies and international grain price dynamics. It demonstrates that while individual countries may seek to insulate their domestic markets, such actions can lead to unintended consequences, including higher international prices and welfare transfers from importers to exporters. The GTAP model provides a more nuanced and accurate analysis than simpler BOTE methods, underscoring the importance of multilateral trade disciplines in mitigating the negative effects of beggar-thy-neighbor policies.