2025-05-15-Jefferies-Gambling.com（GAMB）_通过一些并购整合实现有机增长；重申买入_12页_311kb

Gambling.com Group Ltd (GAMB) Equity Research Summary

Key Highlights

• Reiterated Buy with a $20 price target (+36% from prior $21 PT).
• Company demonstrates strong recurring revenue across B2B and B2C segments, outperforming market expectations for 1Q25.
• Maintains world-class 90%+ gross margins and ~40% EBITDA margins, targeting $100M EBITDA by 2026.
• Price target adjustment reflects updated guidance with weaker 2Q estimates, narrowing 2025 revenue and EBITDA to $172M / $67M.

Performance & Estimates

• 1Q25 Results: Revenue $40.6M (vs. consensus $40.1M), Adj. EBITDA $15.9M (vs. Street $16.1M), NDCs 138K (projected 132K).
• 2025 Guidance: Reiterated revenue $170M–$174M (median $172M), Adj. EBITDA $67M–$69M (median $68M), representing 35% revenue growth.
• 2026 Projections: Revenue $195M, Adj. EBITDA $79M, validating $100M EBITDA target.

Bull & Bear Case

Upside Scenarios

1. Strong US iGaming Growth: Legalization trends and regulatory opportunities in single-regulator models could drive revenue acceleration.
2. Gen AI Integration: Higher intent traffic via AI search.
3. M&A Synergies: Successful integration of Freebets/Odds Holdings enhances B2B opportunities (e.g., Optic Odds).

Downside Risks

1. Regulatory Headwinds: Changes in US or UK regulations could disrupt business models.
2. SEO Algorithm Shift: Potential impact on traffic.
3. M&A Execution Risk: Failure to secure accretive deals.

Valuation & Assumptions

• Base Case: 2026 revenue $195M, EBITDA $79M, leading to $20 PT on EV/Sales 4x, EV/EBITDA 10.5x, P/E 19x.
• Upside Scenario 2026: Revenue $256M, EBITDA $96M, PT $29.
• Downside Scenario 2026: Revenue $144M, EBITDA $48M, PT $10.

Key Catalysts for $20 PT

• North American regulatory clarity
• Forbidding accretive M&A targets
• Successful Gen AI traffic initiatives

Risk Considerations

• Regulatory changes in Europe and the US pose significant risks to operations
• Competitor consolidation could impact market positioning
• Earnings may underperform due to SEO shifts or slower US legalization timeline

Rating Change Tracking

• Date Rating PT Reason
• May 15, 2025 Buy $20 Updated estimates & regional growth assessments

Summary prepared by: [Your Name]