20250629-国金证券-通信行业研究_英伟达股价新高_看好全球AI算力需求持续增长_11页_1mb

报告摘要

Telecom Revenue: 5G businesses stabilized in 2025, with telecom business income growing by 1.4% in the first five months, buoyed by emerging services like cloud computing and AI applications. Fundamentally, operators showed improvement.
AI Demand: Nvidia's market value surged to the highest globally, reaching $3.77 trillion, driven by sustained AI infrastructure investment. This reflects easing market concerns about reduced AI spending and highlights opportunities in the AI calculation platform sector. Related companies include industrial partners like Industrial富联 and optical module suppliers.

Servers: Server index increased by 5.71% this week and 5.80% year-to-date, with AI calcification investment waves starting. Strong performance tied to Nvidia's leadership in AI computing, urging focus on its supply chain partners.
Optical Modules: Optical modules index rose sharply by 7.05% weekly and 25.57% year-to-date. Demand for high-speed modules (e.g., 800G/1.6T) improved due to AI scaling, following stock gains in firms like Fabrinet and Coherent.中国移动's G.654E fiber procurement of ~2.29 million km (three times previous) further boosts long-haul DCI needs.
Switches: H3C launched the first domestic 800G intelligent computing switch, with high国产化 rates, supporting large-scale AI clusters. This accelerates China's native infrastructure development amid increased AI applications.
IDC (Data Centers): IDC index increased by 6.73% this week and 11.17% year-to-date. Growth spurred by REIT approvals like for润泽科技 and万国数据中心, providing capital for expansion. Anticipated new ID orders in H2 2025 with rising AI chip supplies.

Telecom Growth: Fixed and mobile users increase, with high-speed adoption rising. 1Q25 gross expenditure on tech giants (e.g., Microsoft, Google) saw significant raises (+53% to +68%), indicating strong AI infrastructure spending.
Optical Exports: Export data for optical modules fell (-7% ytd, -21.91% in May), but AI demand abroad may offset this with domestic gains.
User Stats: 5G penetration reached 60.8%, while broadband and IoT users expanded, driving data consumption (+16.2% in mobile traffic).

Sectors to Watch: Servers, IDC, optical modules, and switches due to AI and 5G dynamics. Prioritize companies like Industrial富联 for servers and optical players such as中际旭创.
Global AI Focus: Continent-wide AI developments, e.g., from Meta and global tech, offer outsourcing growth potential. Risk includes commercial viability delays.

通信 Sector: +5.53% weekly, ranking fourth overall. Top gainers included中光防雷 (47.26%) and恒宝股份 (30.27%), while decliners like德科立 (-4.30%) and鼎通科技 (-4.91%) fell due to supply issues.

Industry: Updates on AI trends and 5G-A advancements, with focus on long-haul fiber deployment and regulatory scrutiny.
Companies: DeepSeek's AI model delays due to Nvidia export issues; Kimi and腾讯 releasing innovative AI tools; acquisitions and partnerships, e.g., Nvidia acquiring CentML tech.
Global: Meta negotiating PlayAI buyout; Google and Microsoft advancing AI models and small-scale infrastructure.

AI commercial applications may lag; technological hurdles could delay AI advancement; high supply chain dependency, increased regulations, and competitive pressures are potential downsides.

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