20150617-大华继显-地区研究报告_17页_1mb

报告摘要

Regional Morning Notes Summary

Core Content Overview

This document provides a detailed analysis of the financial and strategic performance of several companies in Asia, including China, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore, as of 17 June 2015. It includes updates on sales and earnings, strategic initiatives, key financial metrics, and valuation insights for each company.

China: Dongfeng Motor (489 HK)

Main Points

Sales Performance: May 2015 sales grew by 0.2% yoy to 238,063 units, but were dragged down by a 18.8% yoy decline in commercial vehicle (CV) sales due to the end of the China III to IV emission standard upgrade period in 2014.
Passenger Vehicle (PV) Sales: PV sales increased by 3.4% yoy to 206,244 units, driven by DF Honda and DF Nissan. However, DF PSA and DF Liuzhou saw a slowdown in growth.
Inventory Levels: Channel inventory levels for DF Nissan and DF Honda remained at 48 and 40 days, respectively, up from 45 and 37 days in March 2015. DF PSA's inventory increased from 40 to 47 days.
Sales Forecast Revision: 2015 and 2016 sales forecasts were cut by 4% and 2%, respectively, to 2.83m and 3.22m units.
Margin Impact: Net margins for DFM's JVs were revised down to 3.7% and 3.8% for 2015 and 2016, respectively, due to increased price discounts and competition.
Earnings Forecast: Core EPS forecasts were cut by 10% and 3% to Rmb1.17 and Rmb1.34, respectively, implying yoy growth of -6% and 15%.
Valuation: Target price was cut from HK$14.00 to HK$12.00. The stock trades at 7.6x 2015F PE and 6.6x 2016F PE, below the historical average of 9x.
Key Risks: Geopolitical tensions with Japan could impact sales of Japanese cars in China, particularly if anti-Japanese riots occur.
Dividend Yield: Currently at 2.0%, with a projected increase to 2.4% by 2017.
Market Cap: HK$12,173 million (US$1,686 million).
Valuation Metrics:
- PE: 7.1x (2014), 7.6x (2015F), 6.6x (2016F), 5.8x (2017F)
- P/B: 1.2x (2014), 0.9x (2015F), 0.8x (2016F), 0.7x (2017F)
- Net Debt/Equity: -14.7% (2014), -37.2% (2015F), -21.2% (2016F), -39.4% (2017F)

Indonesia: Acset Indonusa (ACST IJ)

Main Points

New Bookings: Expected to soar 230% yoy in 2015, from Rp607b to Rp2.0t, with 68% of the order win target achieved ytd.
Strategic Position: ACST is a reputable foundation builder with high gross margins (20%) compared to building work (8-12%).
Cost of Debt: As a new member of the Astra Group, ACST may benefit from reduced interest costs, which could provide a 4.3% upside to 2014 net income.
New Contracts: ACST has secured significant new contracts in building and foundation work, including the Lot 13, District 8 Mixed Use Development Project and the Thamrine Nine: Package 03: Main Contract, Phase 1.
Valuation: ACST trades at 14.6x 2016F consensus PE, with a PEG ratio of 0.6x.
Market Cap: Rpb2,250.0 (US$168.6 million).
Shareholders: Karya Supra Perkasa (40.0%), Gross Plus Indonesia (16.5%), and others.
Financial Highlights:
- Net turnover: Rpb1,351 (2014)
- EBITDA: Rpb234
- Operating profit: Rpb177
- Net profit: Rpb105
- EPS: Rp209.0 (2014)
- ROE: 17.4% (2014), 15.7% (2015F), 17.7% (2016F)

Malaysia: Astro Malaysia (ASTRO MK)

Main Points

Earnings Performance: 1QFY16 EBITDA grew yoy due to higher ARPU and more subscribers.
ARPU Trends: Expected to remain positive, but higher content costs may moderate growth.
Recommendation: BUY, with a target price of RM3.65.
Valuation: Current price at RM3.01, with an upside of 21.3% to the target price.
Market Cap: RM12,173 million (US$1,686 million).
Shareholders: Dongfeng Motor Corp (66.86%).

Singapore: Stock Strategy

Main Points

Focus: Analysis of dividend yield stocks ahead of reversing yield compression.
Preferred Stocks: SingTel and SATS are highlighted as favorable investments.
Negative Impact: SIA Eng and StarHub are negatively impacted.
Key Metrics:
- Dividend yield: 3.44% (SATS)
- Target price: RM4.00
- Potential upside: 16.3%

Key Indices (As of 17 June 2015)

Index	Previous Close	1 Day %	1 Week %	1 Month %	YTD %
DJIA	17904.5	0.6	0.8	-2.0	0.5
S&P 500	2096.3	0.6	0.8	-1.2	1.8
FTSE 100	6710.1	-0.0	-0.6	-3.6	2.2
AS30	5535.2	-0.1	1.0	-3.4	2.7
CSI 300	5065.6	-3.0	-4.7	9.7	43.4
FSSTI	3298.1	-0.8	0.1	-4.8	-2.0
HSI	26566.7	-1.1	-1.6	-4.5	12.5
KLCI	1722.2	0.0	-0.4	-4.9	-2.2
BDI	681	3.8	11.3	7.4	-12.9
CPO (RM/mt)	2253	0.1	-1.8	3.0	-1.9
Nikkei 225	20257.9	-0.6	0.8	2.7	16.1
SET	1503.3	0.1	0.7	-0.6	0.4
TWSE	9212.8	-0.5	0.2	-3.8	-1.0
Brent (US$/bbl)	99.45	65	70	-	-
CPO (US$/ml)	722	765	788	-	-
BDI	1,101	1,300	1,400	-	-

Top Picks (BUY)

Company	Ticker	Current Price	Target Price	Potential Upside
Beijing Capital	694 HK	HK$8.76	HK$12.30	40.4%
ICBC	1398 HK	HK$6.39	HK$7.80	22.1%
Bank BJB	BJB J	Rp900.00	Rp1,300.00	44.4%
Maybank	MAY MK	HK$9.15	HK$10.30	12.6%
DBS	DBS SP	HK$20.54	HK$25.08	22.1%
SATS Ltd	SATS SP	HK$3.44	HK$4.00	16.3%
Krung Thai Bank	KTB TB	HK$17.80	HK$21.50	20.8%

Key Assumptions

Metric	2013	2014	2015F	2016F	2017F
GDP (% yoy)	2.8	0.9	2.7	-	-
Brent (US$/bbl)	99.45	65	70	-	-
CPO (US$/ml)	722	765	788	-	-
BDI	1,101	1,300	1,400	-	-

Corporate Events

Event	Venue	Start Date	End Date
Pacific Radiance Luncheon	Singapore	19 Jun	19 Jun
Concord New Energy Roadshow	Singapore	23 Jun	23 Jun
M3 Marine Group Luncheon	Singapore	25 Jun	25 Jun
QL Resources Berhad Roadshow	Singapore	30 Jun	30 Jun

Conclusion

The document highlights the performance and strategic outlook of key companies across China, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore. It emphasizes the challenges faced by Dongfeng Motor due to a price war and weak sales, the strong performance of Acset Indonusa in securing new contracts and reducing costs, the positive EBITDA growth for Astro Malaysia, and the focus on dividend yield stocks in Singapore. Valuation insights and key financial metrics are provided for each company, along with potential upside and risks. The report also includes corporate events and key assumptions for the broader market.

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