2023年12月转债组合：稳中求进，静待政策量变到质变-20231204-上海证券-10页_637kb

Summary of Fixed Income Monthly Report (December 2023)

The report, issued by Shanghai Securities Research Institute on December 4, 2023, analyzes global and domestic macroeconomic conditions, policy developments, and provides investment recommendations for convertible bonds (转债) in China. Based on market conditions and valuation, the report suggests a short-term震荡磨底 market phase, with a focus on steady progress amid policy support.

Key Global Developments:

• American inflation data shows core PCE price index at a 22-month low, and Fed officials like Williams signal policy may be nearing a peak, with expectations of interest rate cuts. Market anticipates potential rate reductions by mid-2024.
• Globally, risks include economic slowdowns if inflation persists.

Domestic Macro Analysis:

• China's PMI declined to 49.4% in November, indicating subdued manufacturing activity, but non-manufacturing PMI held above 50%, supporting continued expansion. Industrial profit growth slowed, with a 7.8% year-over-year decline in the first ten months of 2023, though improvement is seen in specific sectors like electricity and automotive.
• Policies include enhanced synergy between monetary and fiscal measures, "three不低于" guidelines for real estate lenders, consumption promotions in Guangdong, and expanded support for private enterprises, aiming to stabilize growth and mitigate risks.

Market Judgement:

• Capital flows show narrowed Northbound fund outflows and declining USD/CNY exchange rates, suggesting potential reversal in currency trends. The dynamic risk premium model favors a "双低" (low price, low premium) strategy over momentum-based approaches.

Convertible Bond Recommendations:

• For December 2023, the suggested bond portfolio includes:
  zhongxin codes: 123225 (SZ翔丰转债), 113068 (SH金铜转债), 123166 (SZ蒙泰转债), 118016 (SH京源转债), 113649 (SH丰山转债), 127027 (SZ能化转债), 128130 (SZ景兴转债), 128127 (SZ文科转债), 123048 (SZ张行转债), with 113609 (SH永安转债) as the only "动量" focus.
  • Nine "双低" bonds prioritize stability, while one "动量" bond offers growth potential.

Risk Factors:

• Note potential macroeconomic slowdowns, price volatility, overseas inflation risks, policy changes, and model limitations. A diversified approach is recommended to navigate uncertainties.