2014年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Haiti_Seventh_Review_Under_the_Extended_Credit_Facility_Requests_for_Waiver_of_Nonobservance_of_Performance_Criterion_and_Modification_of_Performance_Criteria_83页_1mb

HAITI: Seventh Review Under the Extended Credit Facility and Related Issues

Core Content Overview

This document outlines the Seventh Review Under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) for Haiti, including requests for waiver of nonobservance of performance criteria and proposals for modification of performance criteria. It also includes a Staff Report, Press Release, and Statement by the Executive Director for Haiti, along with several annexes and appendices that provide additional context and data.

Key Program Details

• A three-year ECF arrangement of SDR 40.95 million (50% of quota) was approved in July 2010 and extended for one year in August 2013 without increasing access.
• The program expires on August 29, 2014.
• The program's performance up to end-September 2013 was broadly satisfactory, with most performance criteria met, and progress in structural reforms observed.

Macroeconomic Performance and Outlook (FY2013)

• GDP growth reached 4.3% in FY2013, higher than the 3.4% projected in the sixth review.
• Headline inflation decreased to 4.5% (y/y), from 6.5% in FY2012, amid moderate gourde depreciation.
• The current account deficit increased to 6.5% of GDP, primarily financed by Venezuela-related aid flows.
• Fiscal deficit widened to 6.7% of GDP, driven by subsidies to the electricity sector and larger-than-programmed investment spending.
• International reserves remained at over five months of imports.

Macroeconomic Outlook (FY2014)

• Staff expects GDP growth to remain at 3-4%, inflation at 5-6%, and the current account deficit to decrease slightly.
• Non-farm real GDP is projected to grow by 4%, supported by public investment, remittances, and apparel exports.
• Private sector credit growth is expected to remain broadly stable as a share of GDP.
• Formal sector employment will continue to rise, especially in the apparel sector.

Risks to the Program

• External risks include:
  • Uncertainty in future aid flows due to slow progress in governance and transparency.
  • Potential decline in remittances if advanced economies slow down.
  • Venezuela's economic challenges may affect the sustainability of Petrocaribe.
  • Commodity price shocks could stress the domestic economy.
• Domestic risks include:
  • Political tensions may slow reform momentum.
  • Higher oil prices could reduce customs duties and excise revenues.
  • Continued price freeze on petroleum products may lower revenues.
  • Delayed budget approval could lead to under-execution of the Public Investment Program (PIP).

Fiscal Policy and Structural Reforms

• The fiscal deficit in FY2013 was 6.7% of GDP, slightly lower than the program target of 5.5%.
• Domestic revenues (excluding NEF) were 12.2% of GDP, slightly below the program target.
• The electricity sector remains a major fiscal burden, with subsidies and financial support to EDH contributing to the deficit.
• The budget for FY2014 has not yet been passed, but the government is working to secure approval by end-March 2014.
• The fiscal adjustment is necessary to contain public debt and preserve fiscal buffers.
• The authorities agreed to technical assistance to replace the current oil price mechanism with a more efficient subsidy system and gradual price increases.

Structural Reforms and Performance Criteria

• The Treasury Single Account (TSA) implementation was revised to be completed by end-FY2014, with key benchmarks set for end-March and end-June 2014.
• Accounting Center No. 1 was successfully implemented, covering Ministries of Finance, Tourism, Commerce, and Environment.
• A task force was established at the Ministry of Finance to review the Public Investment Program (PIP), with support from French-funded international experts.
• The DGI allocated office space to the medium-sized taxpayer office, meeting a structural benchmark for end-September 2013.
• The central government is working to strengthen tax administration and public investment frameworks.

Debt Sustainability

• Haiti's debt risk remains high, due to a narrow export base and low revenues.
• The baseline scenario suggests a significant increase in public debt over the medium term.
• A sudden stop of Petrocaribe-related flows could jeopardize growth and deteriorate public debt indicators.
• The debt sustainability analysis (DSA) highlights the importance of accelerating reforms to improve fiscal sustainability.

Staff Recommendations

• Staff supports the waiver of the nonobservance of the performance criteria.
• They recommend the completion of the seventh review under the ECF.
• They also propose modifications to the performance criteria, including:
  • Updating the timing of budget financing.
  • Adjusting monetary base projections.
• The staff emphasized the need for transparency, governance improvements, and monitoring of quasi-fiscal risks and contingent liabilities.

Additional Information

• Key boxes in the document include:
  • Apparel Exports to the U.S.
  • Foreign Assistance and Growth
  • Petrocaribe in Haiti
  • The Electricity Sector: A Drag on the Budget
  • Public Investment and Growth
• Figures and tables provide detailed economic and financial indicators, fiscal developments, and monetary market data.
• The annexes and appendices include:
  • Risk Assessment Matrix
  • Debt Sustainability Analysis
  • Letter of Intent
  • Technical Memorandum of Understanding (Update)

Conclusion

The ECF-supported program has been generally successful, with fiscal and structural progress made. However, risks remain, particularly from external aid uncertainty, political instability, and economic shocks. The staff recommends the completion of the seventh review, waiver of nonobservance, and modification of performance criteria to align with updated projections and reforms. Continued technical assistance and policy coordination are essential to sustain progress and ensure fiscal and debt sustainability.