20151014-USDA-Rice_Outlook__2015.10.14_25页_412kb

Rice Outlook Summary (RCS-15j, Oct. 14, 2015)

Core Content Overview

This report provides an analysis of the U.S. and global rice market outlook for the 2015/16 crop year, including production, supply, demand, prices, and trade forecasts.

U.S. and Global Crop Projections

• U.S. Production:

  • Forecasted at 187.8 million cwt, a 1% decrease from the previous forecast and 15% below the same period in 2014.
  • Yield was reduced by 67 pounds per acre to 7,307 pounds per acre, the smallest since 2011/12.
  • Planted area remained at 2.61 million acres, down 11% from 2014.

• Global Production:

  • Forecasted at 474.0 million tons (milled basis), a 1.7 million ton decrease from the previous forecast and 1% below the year-earlier record.
  • This is the first decline in global production since 2009/10.
  • Major reductions in production occurred in Thailand, India, and the U.S..
  • Sub-Saharan Africa saw upward revisions in production forecasts.

• Ending Stocks:

  • Global ending stocks are projected at 88.3 million tons, a 1.9 million ton reduction from the previous forecast, the lowest since 2007/08.
  • U.S. ending stocks are forecast at 39.8 million cwt, a 4% decrease from the previous forecast and 18% below 2014 levels.

Price Forecasts

• U.S. Long-Grain SAFP:

  • Projected at $12.80-$13.80 per cwt, up from $11.90 in 2014/15, due to smaller U.S. supplies.
  • California is projected at $20.50-$21.50 per cwt, while the South is at $13.50-$14.50 per cwt.

• U.S. Medium- and Short-Grain SAFP:

  • Projected at $17.30-$18.30 per cwt, a 20-cent decrease on both ends from the previous forecast.
  • Midpoint of $17.80 is slightly below the 2014/15 SAFP of $17.90.

• International Rice Prices:

  • Thailand's regular-milled white rice prices increased 2-4% in early October due to Government-to-Government sales to the Philippines and Indonesia, and a stronger Thai baht.
  • Vietnam also saw price increases due to Indonesia's large purchase.
  • U.S. long-grain milled rice prices rose due to reduced expectations of the 2015/16 crop size.

Trade Forecasts

• U.S. Exports:

  • Forecasted at 97.0 million cwt, a 3% decrease from the previous year.
  • Long-grain exports are 64.0 million cwt, down 10%.
  • Medium- and short-grain exports are 33.0 million cwt, up 11% from the previous year.
  • Latin America is the largest market for long-grain exports, while Northeast Asia dominates medium- and short-grain exports.

• Global Trade:

  • Forecasted at 42.0 million tons (milled basis) for 2016, a 0.2 million ton decrease from the previous forecast.
  • Thailand's exports were reduced by 0.7 million tons to 9.5 million tons, while Pakistan's exports increased by 0.5 million tons to a record 4.5 million tons.
  • Imports were reduced for Iraq, Mexico, and Hong Kong in 2016, with Iraq and Mexico also seeing lower 2015 import forecasts.

Regional and State Analysis

• U.S. States:

  • Arkansas accounted for more than half of the 328,000-acre reduction in planted area.
  • California has the smallest rice crop since 1992/93, with 416,000 acres planted.
  • Mississippi and Louisiana also saw declines in both area and yield.
  • Texas had the highest yield among U.S. states, up 3.5% from the previous year, but still below the 2012/13 record.

• Harvest Progress:

  • 78% of the U.S. crop was harvested by October 4, 10 percentage points ahead of last year.
  • California harvested 40% of its crop, well ahead of last year's 26%.
  • Mississippi and Arkansas had faster harvest progress than the 5-year average.

Key Factors Affecting Production and Prices

• Weather Conditions:

  • Thailand faced below normal rainfall, leading to water shortages and lower yields.
  • U.S. South experienced heavy rains followed by severe heat, reducing yields and acreage.
  • California faced drought and water restrictions, impacting production and yields.

• Market Dynamics:

  • Reduced U.S. supplies and wider price differences over Asian competitors contributed to a decline in U.S. exports.
  • Export demand in the Middle East and Northern Africa for medium- and short-grain rice has declined.
  • China is the largest driver of increased global rice consumption, with over half of the projected increase.

Conclusion

The 2015/16 crop year saw reduced production and tightened supply in the U.S. and globally, leading to lower ending stocks and higher prices in some regions. Thailand, India, and the U.S. were the main producers affected by weather-related declines, while Sub-Saharan Africa saw increased production. The U.S. rice market faces challenges due to lower yields and drought, while international prices are influenced by Government sales and currency fluctuations. The tightening supply and low stocks in major exporting countries suggest potential price volatility if export demand rises unexpectedly.