20181015-USDA-USDA_Rice_Outlook_2018.10.15_25页_2mb

报告摘要

Rice Outlook Summary

Core Content

This report provides an overview of the U.S. and global rice market conditions for the 2018/19 crop year. It includes domestic and international production, trade, and price forecasts, highlighting trends and changes in supply, demand, and market dynamics.

U.S. Domestic Outlook

Production Forecast

Total U.S. production for 2018/19 is forecast at 218.8 million cwt, a 0.7 million cwt reduction from the previous forecast due to slightly lower yields.
Yield: The average yield is 7,539 pounds per acre, down 24 pounds from the previous forecast but up 32 pounds from a year earlier.
Harvested Area: Estimated at 2.9 million acres, up 22 percent from a year earlier.
State-wise Production:
- Arkansas accounts for 60% of the 528,000-acre expansion and is projected to produce 106.7 million cwt, up 29%.
- Mississippi is projected at 10.1 million cwt, up 20%.
- Texas is projected at 13.6 million cwt, up 19%.
- Louisiana is projected at 30.4 million cwt, up 15% due to expanded area and higher yield.
- California is projected at 42.7 million cwt, up 14% but with a 2% yield increase.

Harvest Progress

Harvest progress is nearly normal in the Southern U.S. with 79% of the crop harvested by October 7.
California is 7 percentage points behind a year earlier and 15 percentage points behind the 5-year average.

Supplies and Stocks

Total U.S. rice supplies for 2018/19 are forecast at 275.2 million cwt, nearly 10% higher than a year earlier.
Ending stocks are projected at 44.2 million cwt, 50% higher than a year earlier.
Long-grain ending stocks are 30.8 million cwt, 51.5% higher than the previous year.
Medium- and short-grain ending stocks are 12.0 million cwt, 58% higher than the previous year.
The stocks-to-use ratio is expected to rise to 19.1%, indicating downward pressure on prices.

Exports

Total U.S. exports for 2018/19 are projected at 98.0 million cwt, an 13% increase from the previous year.
Long-grain exports are forecast at 69.0 million cwt, up 9%, driven by lower prices and larger supplies.
Milled rice exports are projected at 65.0 million cwt, up 11%, with Latin America and Northeast Asia expected to import more.
Rough rice exports are forecast at 33.0 million cwt, up 15%.

Prices

U.S. season-average farm prices for all rice are expected to be lower than 2017/18.
Long-grain prices are projected at $10.30-$11.30 per cwt, with a midpoint down 90 cents.
Medium- and short-grain prices are projected at $14.20-$15.20 per cwt, with a midpoint down 30 cents.
California medium- and short-grain prices are expected to be $15.80-$16.80 per cwt, 30 cents below the previous year.
U.S. all-rice prices are projected at $11.20-$12.20 per cwt, 90 cents below the previous year.

International Outlook

Global Production

Global rice production for 2018/19 is forecast at 487.8 million tons, up 0.6 million tons from the previous forecast but 1% below the previous year's record.
The increase is due to higher production in Brazil, India, and Madagascar, partially offset by reduced forecasts in Burma, Egypt, and the Philippines.
China accounts for the largest production decline.

Global Trade

Global rice trade in 2019 is projected at a record 49.7 million tons, unchanged from the previous forecast but 0.7 million tons above 2018.
Export forecasts for Brazil and China were increased, while Australia and Burma were decreased.
Import forecasts for China and Nigeria are expected to remain the largest in 2019.

Consumption and Stocks

Global rice consumption for 2018/19 is projected at a record 488.5 million tons, up 0.1 million tons from the previous forecast.
Global ending stocks are projected to decrease by 0.7 million tons to 145.2 million tons, the first year-to-year decline since 2006/07.
The stocks-to-use ratio is expected to fall to 29.7%, indicating little upward price pressure.

Key Countries

India and Madagascar saw increased production forecasts.
Egypt and Burma had reduced production due to area restrictions and flooding.
Philippines had increased import forecasts, while China and Liberia had reduced import forecasts.

Key Information

The U.S. production is up 23% from a year earlier, driven by larger plantings.
Ending stocks are expected to increase by 50%, primarily due to higher production.
Global trade is forecast to remain at a record level, with China, Thailand, and the U.S. as the main exporters.
Thailand and Vietnam saw slight price increases, while U.S. prices continued to decline.
Imports in the U.S. are expected to remain record high, with Thailand, India, and Pakistan as the main long-grain suppliers.