20251109-金元证券-周度概览_央行买债重启_市场预期回落_14页_1mb

报告摘要

Fixed Income Market Weekly Summary

Market Recap

Last week, the bond market partially reversed gains following the central bank's bond operation results, which led to a decline in market expectations. The stock market, particularly A-shares, outperformed globally but put pressure on bonds, with yields trending upward. High-liquidity bonds saw larger yield increases compared to low-liquidity ones, resulting in a flattening yield curve for interest-rate bonds and compression of credit spreads.

Yield Analysis

AAA-rated 3-year medium-term notes yields decreased by 0.53BP to 1.8724%, while 10-year government bond yields rose by 1.88BP to 1.8142%. Short-term funding rates, like R001, decreased by 1.53BP to 1.3916%. Overall, yields increased for most maturities, with curves bearing flattening.

Funding Conditions

Short-term rates remained stable or declined slightly, with reduced liquidity segmentation. Bond supply increased significantly, with net financing of 3,123 billion yuan for interest-rate bonds and 1,913 billion yuan for credit bonds. Central bank actions, including large-scale liquidity withdrawals, affected market dynamics.

Yield Curve and Spreads

The interest-rate yield curve flattened as yields rose across most tenors. Credit spreads narrowed, with higher compression in higher-rated bonds. Term and rating spreads compressed, reflecting market tightness and better credit availability.

Outlook

The bond market may see improvement due to reduced fiscal support and declining central bank activities, but short-term trading remains challenging because of ongoing stock market trends and policy changes promoting competition. Basic support for bonds is still strong.