2025-06-13-花旗集团-三井高科技（6966）_三井高科技（6966.T）_第一季度业绩——有些积极_超出计划但潜在需求未恢复_10页_243kb

报告摘要

Actual operating profit (OP) for February-April 2025 was ¥3.5 billion, missing the Bloomberg estimate of ¥3.7 billion by ¥200 million but exceeding the company’s plan.
The better-than-expected performance was driven by delayed booking of business costs, not underlying demand recovery.
Auto production trends are weaker, particularly in EVs, and demand in MC business is lower than expected, with volume likely staying flat year-over-year in Q2 despite seasonal smartphone-related demand expected to rise.

Uses a RoIC-WACC approach with a base year of FY1/26.
Assumes 1.0% growth, 1.00% risk-free rate, and 5.6% equity-risk premium.
Target price corresponds to a FY1/25 earnings-per-share (EPS) multiple of 19.1x and FY1/26 of 16.6x.
Future business value multiplier: 19.4x, based on 7.8% RoIC and 5.2% WACC.

Key risks include lower auto and EV production, procurement issues for raw materials like electrical steel sheets, and reduced market shares for major OEMs.
Despite upside factors, the share price is expected to remain rangebound until demand recovery in H2.
No significant tariff impacts in Q1, with rare earths closely monitored by the firm.

No demand recovery in Q2 as of yet, with upfront investment expenses likely increasing Q2 profit declines.
Positive ETR (15%+) supports the "Buy" rating, but risks may limit upside if expectations aren't met.

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