世界银行-纳米比亚农业灾害风险金融和保险诊断（英）-2023-66页_4mb

SUMMARY

Background and Context
Namibia's agriculture sector is vital for economic growth, contributing about 8% to GDP and employing 23% of the workforce. However, it is highly vulnerable to climate shocks, particularly drought, due to low rainfall variability and high evaporation rates. The country declared national states of disaster six times in the last 20 years, leading to significant financial losses in agriculture. Public financial protection gaps remain large, with only 5% of total losses covered by existing disaster relief programs.

Current Disaster Risk Finance (DRF)
Namibia's DRF approach relies solely on risk retention (budget-based funds) without risk transfer mechanisms. This results in fragmented, inefficient funding, delayed reimbursements, and limited coverage. The National Disaster Fund covers 95% of losses, but it is inadequate for moderate to severe events. The country lacks index-based insurance for smallholder farmers and supportive policies, limiting resilience.

Agriculture Insurance
Access to agriculture insurance in Namibia is limited. Commercial farmers receive liability and asset insurance, but smallholders face barriers such as lack of collateral, low productivity, and poor financial literacy. Index-based insurance is recommended for scalability, but challenges include high transaction costs, data gaps, and basis risk. Remote sensing technologies show potential for improving yield and weather data collection.

Key Recommendations

1. Develop a Risk-Layered DRF Approach: Harmonize existing instruments, conduct a fiscal gap analysis, and adopt a national DRF policy to integrate DRF and the National Agricultural Insurance Program (NAIP).
2. Support Financial Inclusion: Expand access to credit and financial services for smallholders, including fintech/agtech solutions.
3. Use Differentiated Approaches: Target index insurance for market-linked smallholders (e.g., farmers south of the Veterinary Cordon Fence) while using DRF mechanisms (e.g., National Disaster Fund) for subsistence farmers.
4. Develop Index Insurance Products: Prioritize remote-sensing-based products for livestock (e.g., soil moisture or vegetation indices) and crops (e.g., weather or area-yield indices) for pearl millet and maize.
5. Establish a NAIP as a PPP: Structure the program with a steering committee, technical support unit, and private insurers. Include clear communication strategies, pilot testing, and monitoring frameworks.
6. Provide Fiscal Support: Allocate funding for product development, data collection, and premium cofinancing. Estimated annual costs for NAIP range from US$1 million to US$4.5 million.

Next Steps

• Disaster Risk Finance: Establish a technical working group, review operational procedures, conduct fiscal gap analysis, and define a risk-layered strategy.
• Agriculture Insurance: Engage insurers, secure funding for NAIP development, establish institutional frameworks, and define product testing processes.

Annex Notes

• Remote sensing technologies (e.g., NDVI and ET indices) can improve index insurance by addressing data gaps.
• Scenarios for NAIP costs depend on subsidy levels, farmer segments, and premium rates.