世界银行：2022年贫困与共享繁荣_271页_6mb

Summary of Poverty and Shared Prosperity 2022: Correcting Course

Core Content

This report, Poverty and Shared Prosperity 2022: Correcting Course, provides an in-depth analysis of global poverty and shared prosperity trends, particularly in the context of the economic shocks caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and the Ukraine war. It highlights the reversal of progress in poverty reduction and underscores the importance of fiscal policy in achieving an inclusive recovery.

Main Messages

• Global poverty has increased significantly since the pandemic began, with the number of people living below the extreme poverty line rising by over 70 million in 2020, the largest one-year increase since 1990.
• Poverty reduction has stalled in 2022, with the poorest 40% of the global population experiencing twice the income loss of the richest 20%.
• Shared prosperity has also slowed, with median income growth declining by 4% in 2020—the first such decline since 1990.
• Global inequality has worsened, with the pandemic causing the largest increase in inequality since World War II, driven by between-country inequality and income shocks in large economies.
• Fiscal policy has played a crucial role in mitigating the pandemic's impact on poverty, but its effectiveness varies by country income level. Wealthier countries were more successful in offsetting poverty impacts, while developing economies had limited resources and achieved less.
• Targeted cash transfers are more effective than broad subsidies in supporting the poor, with over 60% of cash transfer spending going to the bottom 40%.
• Progressive fiscal reforms are essential for reducing inequality and supporting growth, including improving tax progressivity, increasing direct taxes, and reducing regressive exemptions.
• Digitalization and behavioral science tools can improve the efficiency and reach of fiscal policy, especially in social protection and tax compliance.
• Data and evidence are critical for informed fiscal decision-making, and improving data coverage is necessary for better poverty monitoring and policy design.

Key Findings

Part 1: Progress on Poverty and Shared Prosperity

• Global poverty has seen a historic setback, with extreme poverty remaining at over 700 million people by 2030, most in Africa.
• Poverty trends show that monetary poverty has declined, but multidimensional poverty (including education, health, and living standards) has also been affected.
• Learning losses and increased mortality have had lasting effects on the well-being and income prospects of the poor.
• Poverty-adjusted life expectancy has declined in lower-income economies, reflecting the combined impact of education and health deprivations.

Part 2: Fiscal Policy for an Inclusive Recovery

• Fiscal policy is a key tool for poverty reduction and shared prosperity, especially in low- and middle-income countries.
• Effective fiscal responses include targeted cash transfers, investment in education and health, and improving tax systems to be more progressive.
• Fiscal reforms can stimulate growth and reduce inequality, but they require sustained effort and global cooperation.
• Taxation and subsidies have different distributional impacts, with indirect taxes often being more regressive than direct transfers.
• Digital tools and behavioral science can enhance the efficiency and reach of fiscal policies, particularly in social protection.

Key Information

• Poverty lines have been updated to 2017 PPP-based standards, which show slower progress in poverty reduction in recent years.
• Nowcasting techniques were used to assess poverty changes during the pandemic, showing uneven recovery across regions.
• Multidimensional poverty is more prevalent in lower-income economies, where education and health deprivations are more severe.
• Fiscal policy is more effective in wealthier economies, with greater resources and more comprehensive support.
• Targeted fiscal measures are more efficient and equitable than broad subsidies, especially in low- and middle-income countries.
• Reforms in tax systems and public spending are necessary to achieve shared prosperity and reduce inequality.
• Global action is required to mobilize resources and implement effective fiscal policies that support inclusive growth.

Recommendations

• Prioritize targeted cash transfers over broad subsidies to better support the poor and vulnerable.
• Invest in long-term growth through education, R&D, and infrastructure.
• Improve tax progressivity by expanding direct taxes and reducing regressive exemptions.
• Enhance data collection and analysis to inform better fiscal decisions.
• Use digitalization and behavioral science to improve the efficiency and reach of fiscal policies.
• Ensure timely and equitable delivery of fiscal support to meet the needs of the most vulnerable.
• Promote global collaboration to support inclusive recovery and renew progress on poverty reduction.

Conclusion

The report emphasizes that fiscal policy, when prudently designed and implemented, can correct course in poverty reduction and support shared prosperity. It calls for targeted interventions, progressive taxation, and global action to renew progress and ensure inclusive growth.