2025第五届全球量子计算市场年度调研报告_持续进步_变革将至_29页_1mb

报告摘要

QED·C 5th Annual Global QC Market Survey Summary

Core Content and Key Findings

The 5th Annual Global QC Market Survey by Hyperion Research, LLC provides an overview of the current state and future projections of the quantum computing (QC) market, highlighting continued growth, evolving partnerships, and concerns about a potential "quantum winter."

Market Growth and Revenue Projections

The global QC market is estimated to be worth $1.07 billion in 2024, with a projected average annual growth rate of 27%, leading to a market value of $2.2 billion by 2027.
On-premises activities are expected to account for 46% of the QC market in 2027, up from 31% in 2026.
Cloud and on-premises revenues are expected to near parity in 2027.
The exponential growth curve is beginning to dominate the market's expansion.

Revenue Trends and Expectations

41.5% of QC suppliers expect revenue to increase by more than 25% in 2025, up from 36.6% in 2024.
18.3% expect gains between 11% and 25%, almost double from 9.8% in 2024.
Only 9.8% of firms expect flat or nearly the same revenues in 2025, down from 25.6% in 2024.
No expected revenue decreases in 2025, indicating strong market confidence.

Funding and Financial Resources

Government-provided R&D funding is the most significant financial resource, with 52.4% of companies relying on it, contributing to 39.4% of total funding.
Venture capital (VC) funding is the second-largest source, with 45.1% of companies receiving it, contributing to 64.8% of total funding.
Internal R&D budgets support 35.4% of companies, contributing to 65.0% of total funding.
Commercial user payments account for 24.4% of companies, contributing to 41.0% of total funding.
Stock offerings and loans are not widely used, with 2.4% of companies using stock offerings and 3.7% using loans.

Partnerships and Collaborations

Partnerships are a fundamental activity in the QC supplier sector.
83% of companies have commercial partnerships with at least one other QC supplier.
74% have partnerships with government research organizations.
71% have partnerships with QC end users.
The top reasons for partnerships include access to technical expertise, larger customer bases, and new technologies.
Access to classical IT technology is not a priority for government partnerships.

Market Segments and Algorithms

QC hardware is expected to account for 30% of the market in 2027, with cloud-based QC access at 14.4% and on-premises QC hardware at 24.9%.
Modeling/simulation remains the top algorithm by revenue, with 19% of the market share.
Hybrid QC algorithms, optimization, and AI (ML, DL, Gen-AI) are also significant, with 15%, 15%, and 14% respectively.
Cybersecurity and Monte Carlo processes are also noted, but with smaller market shares.

End User Sectors

The most promising end user sectors in 2027 are:
- Chemicals/Chemistry (excluding pharmaceuticals): 48.7%
- Quantum R&D (QC, QIS): 47.8%
- Pharmaceuticals: 34.8%
Finance drops from 30% in 2023 to 21% in 2025.
Government labs and academic institutions are also significant sectors.
The Chemicals/Chemistry sector is highlighted as a major driver of QC adoption due to its reliance on modeling and simulation.

End User Motivations

Implementing new algorithms not possible on classical systems is the top motivation for QC adoption: 56.5%.
Addressing concerns about future classical performance is also a major driver: 51.3%.
Exploring QC use cases and developing in-house familiarity with QC skills are also key motivations, with 47.0% and 45.2% respectively.
Real-time compute opportunities and cost reduction are also important, with 23.5% and 14.8% of respondents prioritizing them.

Utility-Class QC and Market Concerns

52% of respondents expect utility-class QC to be available within 2-5 years.
24.8% expect it to be available in 5 years or more.
8% believe utility-class QC is already available or will be available in the next year.
Almost half of respondents (49%) believe a quantum winter is possible, defined as a >25% decline in QC R&D investment lasting >3 years.
The likelihood of a quantum winter has increased, with 24% of respondents now seeing a very high chance, up from 14% in 2024.

QC Distractions and LLMs

Large language models (LLMs) like ChatGPT and BERT are seen as near-term competitors for QC end user interest by 47% of respondents, up from 42% in 2024.
LLMs are perceived as a potential distraction, impacting the market's focus and adoption rates.

Demographics and Market Concentration

80% of respondent organizations are private, with 20% public.
Only ~1% of private firms plan to go public in the next two years.
50% of companies have R&D or manufacturing facilities outside their headquarters.
Geographic distribution is dominated by North America (53.6%) and Europe (24.4%).
QC applications software and hardware are the most common main products/services, with 39.0% and 41.4% respectively.

Summary of Key Trends

Growth remains robust, with a projected 27% CAGR.
Partnerships are crucial for growth, especially with government research and end users.
Modeling/simulation is the top algorithm by revenue, but hybrid algorithms are gaining traction.
On-premises systems are expected to grow significantly.
LLMs and gen-AI are seen as potential competitors.
Concerns about a quantum winter are rising, indicating market uncertainty.
Most companies are still in the exploration phase and not yet focused on end use deployment.