2018年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Macro_30页_2mb

IMF Working Paper Summary: Macro-Fiscal Implications of Climate Change – The Case of Djibouti

Core Content

This IMF Working Paper analyzes the macro-fiscal implications of climate change for Djibouti, emphasizing the country's vulnerability and the need for strategic investment in adaptation and mitigation measures. The paper is authored by Alexei Kireyev and published in November 2018.

Main Points

1. Djibouti's Climate Vulnerability

• Djibouti is a small, arid state in the Horn of Africa, located in an area of tectonic plate separation with a landscape dominated by volcanic formations.
• The country has limited water resources, arable land, and is highly susceptible to water stress, desertification, and climate-related natural disasters.
• The population is largely concentrated in coastal areas, which are at risk from rising sea levels, coastal erosion, and saline intrusion.
• The country's economy is heavily dependent on port and transport services, with 76% of GDP and 53% of employment located in coastal areas.

2. Climate Change Risks and Projections

• Projected Climate Warming Trends:

  • Average temperatures in Djibouti are expected to rise by 1°C every two decades.
  • By 2100, temperatures are projected to increase to 32°C, which could worsen living conditions and reduce productivity.
  • Monthly rainfall is expected to increase slightly, but with greater seasonal variability, leading to more frequent and severe droughts and floods.
  • Sea levels are projected to rise by up to 2.8 meters by 2100, threatening up to half of the population, economic activities, and a third of the capital stock.

• Climate-Related Natural Disasters:

  • Djibouti is at high risk of coastal floods, extreme heat, and wildfires.
  • The frequency of climate-related disasters has increased, with recent examples including the 2007–8, 2010, and 2017–18 droughts, and the 2018 tropical cyclone Sagar.
  • The 2018 cyclone caused widespread flooding, damaging 2,000 homes and infrastructure, and affecting 30,000 people.

3. Economic and Fiscal Impacts of Climate Change

• Model Estimates:

  • Climate change could cost Djibouti between 1% to 3% of GDP annually by 2030, and potentially up to 6% under a more severe warming scenario.
  • Under a 2°C warming scenario, the total cost of climate change is expected to rise linearly from 1% to 3% of GDP over 2010–2060.
  • Under a 4°C scenario, the potential cost could reach 6% of GDP.
  • Even with adaptation, residual damages may still be significant, potentially twice the cost of adaptation measures.

• Past Experience:

  • The 2008–11 drought had a mixed impact on Djibouti's macroeconomic performance.
  • While GDP growth and inflation were affected, revenue and grants remained stable, and capital expenditure was financed by external loans.
  • The fiscal deficit expanded, but the current account improved due to rising international prices for food and fuel.
  • The government had to spend about 0.2% of GDP on unprogrammed drought-related expenditures.

4. Climate Change Management and Policy Options

• Mitigation and Adaptation:

  • Mitigation efforts include reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 40% by 2030 through renewable energy development and other measures.
  • Adaptation is crucial, especially for reducing future costs and protecting economic infrastructure.
  • Adaptation costs are estimated to be high, with the need for significant investment in infrastructure, water management, and disaster preparedness.

• Policy Recommendations:

  • Djibouti needs to integrate climate-related investments into its long-term fiscal projections.
  • Reforms to generate fiscal space are essential for financing climate adaptation and mitigation.
  • Promoting inclusive growth and strengthening fiscal discipline can help manage climate risks.
  • Regional and international cooperation is recommended to address climate-related macro-fiscal risks.

5. Conclusion

• Climate change poses significant macro-fiscal risks to Djibouti, including rising temperatures, water scarcity, and coastal flooding.
• Investing in adaptation and mitigation now can significantly reduce future costs.
• Concerted international efforts and regional cooperation are necessary to support Djibouti in managing these risks.

Key Information

• JEL Classification: D90, E25, I32
• Keywords: climate change, Djibouti, inclusive growth, climate warming
• Author's Email: akireyev@imf.org
• Data Sources: World Bank, IMF Country Report, CRED-EM DAT, GFDRR, and other international organizations.

Figures and Data Highlights

• Figure 1: Djibouti's investment projects are concentrated in coastal areas.
• Figure 2: The 2018 cyclone Sagar caused severe flooding in Djibouti City.
• Figure 3: Projected temperature and rainfall trends for Djibouti by 2100.
• Figure 4: Sea level rise could affect up to half of the population and a third of the capital stock.
• Figure 5: Frequency of climate-related natural disasters in Djibouti.
• Figure 6: Classification of climate-related hazards in Djibouti (high, medium, very low).
• Figure 7: Cost structure of potential damage under baseline and adverse scenarios.
• Figure 8: Macroeconomic implications of the 2008–11 drought on Djibouti.

References

• IMF (2017): Economic impact of temperature increases.
• Cashin, Mohaddes, and Raissi (2017): Impact of extreme weather events on economic activity.
• Hallegatte et al. (2016): Climate change effects on various sectors.
• Sippel, Walton, and Otto (2015): Regional trends in drought frequency.
• GFDRR (2018): Risk classification for Djibouti.
• World Bank (2018): Climate change knowledge portal.
• CPDN (2015), AAGr2 (2015): Model-based cost estimates.
• UNITAR (2018): Flooded areas in Djibouti City, May 2018.