2021-11-30-世界银行-大宗商品市场展望_2021年10月（英）_102页_2mb

Commodity Markets Outlook Summary: October 2021

The World Bank report highlights key trends and forecasts for major commodities in its October 2021 issue. Energy prices surged in 2021 due to strong global demand recovery and supply constraints, while non-energy prices plateaued. Crude oil averages $74/bbl for 2022, down slightly from previous projections. Metals prices rose over the year but are expected to decline in 2022. Agricultural prices increased sharply in 2021 and are anticipated to stabilize in 2022.

Energy Market Highlights

• Significant price increases across fossil fuels, driven by demand rebound and supply issues.
• Natural gas and coal prices reached all-time highs.
• Ongoing global recovery in oil demand is expected to continue, albeit unevenly.

Agricultural Updates

• Food prices stabilized after large increases in 2021.
• Grain supplies meet demand growth despite weather disruptions and input cost pressures.
• Biofuel demand contributes to feedstock demand.

Urbanization and Commodity Demand

• A special focus section explores this relationship, finding that urbanization drives higher commodity consumption.
• High-density cities in advanced economies have lower per capita energy use than low-density ones.
• Strategic urban planning is emphasized to minimize negative environmental impacts while capturing urbanization benefits.

Metals and Minerals

• Precious metal prices softened in 2021 but remain strong by historical standards.
• Most base metals experienced significant increases this year.
• Supply constraints and investment uncertainty are key risks.

Risks and Uncertainties

• Energy prices face volatility due to persistent low inventories.
• Geopolitical tensions, extreme weather events, and disease outbreaks are major risks.
• Climate change impacts on resource availability represent long-term challenges.

The report emphasizes that while population urbanization is a major driver of commodity demand, compact city planning can help mitigate negative impacts on resources. Output increases are expected in some sectors by 2022, with prices likely to moderate from recent peaks.