2023年大宗商品市场展望报告（英文版）-世界银行组织_58页_2mb

Commodity Markets Outlook Summary

Core Content

The Commodity Markets Outlook report for April 2023 provides an analysis of global commodity price trends and forecasts for the remainder of 2023 and into 2024. It highlights that while global commodity prices have declined significantly from their 2022 peaks, they remain above pre-pandemic levels, affecting affordability and food security. The report also evaluates various forecasting methodologies for industrial commodity prices.

Main Points

• Commodity Price Trends (2023 Q1):

  • Global commodity prices fell 14 percent in the first quarter of 2023.
  • By the end of March 2023, prices were roughly 30 percent below their historic peak in June 2022.
  • Prices for most major commodity groups and about four-fifths of individual commodities remain above the 2015-19 average.

• Energy Market:

  • Energy prices dropped 20 percent in the first quarter of 2023 compared to the final quarter of 2022.
  • Brent crude oil prices are 35 percent below their 2022 peak and are expected to average $84 per barrel in 2023.
  • Natural gas prices in Europe fell by about 53 percent in 2023, but will remain almost three times as high as the 2015-19 average.
  • Coal prices are forecast to fall 42 percent in 2023 and 23 percent in 2024.

• Agricultural Market:

  • Agricultural prices were broadly unchanged from the final quarter of 2022 to the first quarter of 2023, at 14 percent below their 2022 peak.
  • Grain prices fell 5 percent in the first quarter of 2023, while most other food commodities saw slight price increases.
  • Food prices are expected to fall by 8 percent in 2023 and 3 percent in 2024, but will remain at their second-highest level since 1975.
  • Over 349 million people globally are projected to face food insecurity this year, double the number in 2020.

• Fertilizers Market:

  • Fertilizer prices reached an all-time high in real terms in 2022 and are expected to fall by 37 percent in 2023.
  • Despite the price drop, they remain near the high levels of the 2008-09 food crisis.

• Metals and Minerals Market:

  • Metals and minerals prices rose 10 percent in the first quarter of 2023 from the final quarter of 2022.
  • Prices are expected to fall by 8 percent in 2023 and a further 3 percent in 2024.
  • Precious metals prices are expected to increase by 6 percent in 2023 due to safe-haven demand and financial stress.

• Forecasting Industrial Commodity Prices:

  • A special focus section reviews 60 studies on forecasting methods for seven industrial commodities.
  • Key findings include:
    • Futures prices often lead to large forecast errors.
    • Multivariate time series models tend to outperform other approaches.
    • Machine learning techniques show promise in improving forecast accuracy.
    • Incorporating price dynamics and controlling for economic factors enhances accuracy.

Key Information

• Price Forecasts:

  • The World Bank Commodity Price Index is expected to fall by 21.2 percent in 2023 and 0.8 percent in 2024.
  • Energy prices are forecast to decline by 26 percent in 2023 and remain broadly unchanged in 2024.
  • Non-energy commodity prices are expected to fall by about 10 percent in 2023 and 2.7 percent in 2024.

• Risks:

  • Upside risks include:
    • Weaker-than-expected oil supply.
    • Direction of demand from China.
    • Intensification of geopolitical tensions.
    • Unfavorable weather conditions.
  • Downside risks include disappointing global growth, which could lead to lower prices for industrial commodities.

• Data Sources:

  • The report uses data from the World Bank, Bruegel Research Service, EM-DAT, and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations.
  • The cutoff date for data was April 21, 2023.

• Report Access:

  • The report and data can be accessed at: www.worldbank.org/commodities
  • For inquiries, contact: commodities@worldbank.org

• Additional Notes:

  • The report is published twice a year, in April and October.
  • Price forecasts are presented for 46 commodities.
  • Commodity price data updates are published separately at the beginning of each month.

Figures and Tables

• Figure 1: Highlights the decline in commodity prices from record levels in 2022 and their current status relative to pre-pandemic levels.
• Table 1: Provides detailed price forecasts for various commodities from 2020 to 2024, including percentage changes and differences from October 2022 projections.

Conclusion

Despite the sharp decline in commodity prices from their 2022 peaks, they remain above pre-pandemic levels, posing ongoing challenges for affordability and food security. The report forecasts that prices will remain broadly unchanged over the remainder of 2023 and into 2024, with some commodities experiencing slight increases. The analysis also underscores the importance of accurate forecasting methods in predicting future price movements and the potential impact of various risks on market stability.