IEA-2017年全球能源概览（英文）-2017-71页-3mb

Summary of Global EV Outlook 2017

Core Content

The Global EV Outlook 2017 is a comprehensive report by the International Energy Agency (IEA), highlighting the global growth of electric vehicles (EVs), particularly electric cars, and the associated challenges and opportunities for the power sector. It also outlines the role of the Electric Vehicles Initiative (EVI) in promoting EV adoption and the importance of policy support and infrastructure development.

Main Points and Key Information

1. Electric Car Market Growth

• New Registrations: In 2016, electric car registrations reached a record of over 750,000 globally, marking a 29% market share in Norway, the highest in the world.
• Market Share by Country:
  • Norway: 29%
  • Netherlands: 6.4%
  • Sweden: 3.4%
  • China, France, and the UK: ~1.5%
• China Dominates: China was the largest electric car market in 2016, accounting for over 40% of global sales and more than double the US sales.
• Global Stock Growth: The global electric car stock surpassed 2 million vehicles in 2016, up from 1 million in 2015.
• Market Trends: The annual growth rate of electric car stock in 2016 was 60%, down from 77% in 2015 and 85% in 2014. The growth rate of public charging infrastructure was 72%, similar to the growth of the electric car stock.

2. EV Deployment Scenarios

• 2030 Projections:
  • Reference Technology Scenario (RTS): Electric cars are expected to reach 9 million to 20 million units by 2020 and 40 million to 70 million by 2025.
  • Two Degree Scenario (2DS): Electric cars would account for 60% of the total Passenger Light-Duty Vehicle (PLDV) stock by 2060.
  • Beyond Two Degree Scenario (B2DS): Electric cars would represent 85% of PLDV stock by 2060, with two-wheelers fully electrified by 2045.
• GHG Emission Reductions:
  • To meet the Paris Agreement goal of limiting global temperature rise to 1.5–2°C, energy-related GHG emissions must reach net-zero by the second half of this century.
  • The B2DS scenario aims for a 1.75°C increase, with emissions reaching net-zero around 2090, while the 2DS scenario targets 2°C with net-zero around 2060.

3. EVSE (Electric Vehicle Supply Equipment) Development

• Charging Infrastructure: EVSE deployment is crucial for supporting the growth of the EV market.
• Charging Types: Publicly accessible slow chargers and fast chargers are the focus, with growth rates and distribution analyzed by country.
• Policy Support: EVSE deployment is supported through standards, financial incentives, regulations, and permits. Cities play a vital role in shaping and implementing these policies.

4. Policy and Market Dynamics

• Policy Influence: The current EV market is heavily influenced by policy environments, including RD&D, mandates, tax incentives, and public procurement.
• City-Level Actions: Cities are key in accelerating EV adoption, with examples like Amsterdam adopting a demand-based approach to deploy EVSE.
• Future Policy Needs: As EV sales grow, purchase incentives will likely decrease, and subsidies may become economically unsustainable. Governments will need to reconsider their policy tools and transition to new revenue models for road transport infrastructure.

5. EVI and Its Role

• EVI Overview: The Electric Vehicles Initiative (EVI), established in 2009 under the Clean Energy Ministerial (CEM), aims to accelerate EV deployment globally.
• Member Countries: As of 2017, the EVI includes 10 member countries (Canada, China, France, Germany, Japan, Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, UK, US), with China and the US co-leading.
• EVI Partnerships: The EVI collaborates with organizations such as AVERE, Climate Group, GIZ, NREL, and UNEP.
• Key Outputs: The EVI has produced the Global EV Outlook, EV City Casebook, and contributed to the Paris Declaration on Electro-Mobility and Climate Change.

6. EV30@30 Campaign

• Objective: The EV30@30 campaign, launched at the 2017 Clean Energy Ministerial, aims for a 30% market share of EVs in the total of all passenger cars, light commercial vehicles, buses, and trucks by 2030.
• Actions: Includes supporting charger deployment, tracking progress, encouraging public and private commitments, and establishing the Global EV Pilot City programme.

Challenges and Opportunities

• Power Sector Impact: EV charging can significantly affect grid loads, especially during peak times, requiring demand response and smart charging strategies.
• Mitigation Strategies:
  • Optimizing charging timing and duration.
  • Modulating power delivery.
  • Using vehicle-to-grid (V2G) solutions.
  • Deploying stationary storage at local or grid levels for fast chargers.
• Future Outlook: While the EV market is growing, the current scale is still small, representing only 0.2% of global PLDV stock. The report suggests that EVs need to reach deployment scales to make a significant impact on oil demand and GHG emissions.

Conclusion

The Global EV Outlook 2017 underscores the rapid growth of the EV market, particularly in China, and highlights the increasing role of cities in driving EV adoption. It also outlines the importance of policy support, infrastructure development, and technology advancements in shaping the future of electric mobility. The report emphasizes the need for collaboration, innovation, and strategic planning to ensure that EVs contribute meaningfully to climate goals and sustainable transport.