iea-2018年全球电动汽车概览（英文）-2018.10-141页-6mb

Global EV Outlook 2018 Summary

Core Content and Scope

The Global EV Outlook 2018 provides an in-depth analysis of the global electric vehicle (EV) market, focusing on the growth of EV sales and vehicle stock, the development of EV supply equipment (EVSE), the impact of EVs on energy demand and emissions, and the role of battery technology in driving this transition. It also outlines policy considerations and future outlooks for EV adoption up to 2030, including scenarios based on current and future policy directions.

Key Areas Covered

• Electric Vehicles (EVs): Analysis of sales, market shares, and stock growth across different transport modes.
• EV Supply Equipment (EVSE): Overview of charging infrastructure, including private and public charging outlets, standards, and policy support.
• Energy Demand and Emissions: Assessment of how EVs affect energy consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) and local air pollutant emissions.
• Battery Technology: Examination of current battery status, cost and performance drivers, and future development prospects.
• Policy Considerations: Discussion of the policy environment needed to support EV growth, including public procurement, tax incentives, and grid integration.

Main Findings and Highlights

1. Global EV Sales and Stock

• In 2017, global new electric car sales surpassed 1 million units, representing a 54% increase from 2016.
• Electric cars accounted for 39% of new car sales in Norway, the most advanced EV market.
• China was the largest market for electric cars, with a 2.2% market share in 2017, and more than double the number of electric cars sold compared to the U.S.
• The global stock of electric cars crossed 3 million in 2017, with China holding 40% of the total.
• Electric buses and two-wheelers are also growing rapidly, with 370,000 electric buses and 250 million electric two-wheelers in 2017, 99% of which were in China.

2. Charging Infrastructure

• Private chargers are the most widely used, with over 3 million installed globally in 2017.
• Publicly accessible chargers were around 430,000, with slow chargers (almost 320,000) being the majority.
• Fast chargers (over 110,000) are becoming increasingly important, especially in urban areas and for long-distance travel.
• In the EV30@30 Scenario, the number of electric light-duty vehicles (LDVs) is projected to reach 220 million by 2030, with 125 million under the New Policies Scenario.
• Bus charging infrastructure is expected to rely exclusively on fast chargers (≥50 kW), allowing for the recharging of two buses per night.

3. Battery Technology and Costs

• Lithium-ion (Li-ion) batteries are the dominant technology in EVs, with significant improvements in cost and performance.
• Battery cost reductions are crucial for improving the cost competitiveness of electric vehicles (EVs), especially for individual consumers.
• Fleet operators (e.g., buses, taxis, ride-hailing services) benefit most from the cost reduction of BEVs due to intensive usage.
• Battery chemistry, manufacturing scale, size, and charging speed are key drivers of cost and performance.
• Post-Li-ion technologies are emerging but are not yet ready for widespread use.

4. Material Demand

• The shift to EVs will increase demand for cobalt and lithium, particularly in the EV30@30 Scenario.
• Cobalt demand is expected to be 25 times higher by 2030 compared to 2017, due to its use in high-energy-density batteries.
• Lithium demand is also expected to rise significantly.
• Cobalt supply is concentrated in a few countries, raising supply risks and the need for regulatory support to ensure stable and affordable supply.

5. Policy Support and Recommendations

• Policy plays a central role in driving EV deployment, especially in China and Norway.
• Public procurement of EVs (e.g., buses, municipal vehicles) helps demonstrate the technology and initiate economies of scale.
• CO2-based taxation and complementary measures (e.g., preferential parking, road toll rebates) are important to stimulate EV adoption.
• Regulatory frameworks should address traceability, labour and environmental standards, and battery recycling to ensure long-term sustainability.
• Charging infrastructure development should be supported by business-driven models and grid integration strategies.
• Taxation based on vehicle activity (e.g., distance-based pricing) is suggested as a way to recover funds for transport infrastructure and reduce traffic congestion.

Outlook to 2030

• In the EV30@30 Scenario, 228 million EVs (excluding two- and three-wheelers) are expected by 2030, with 130 million battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and 90 million plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs).
• Battery cost reductions and scaling up production will continue to drive EV affordability and market growth.
• Charging infrastructure will grow in line with EV penetration, with private chargers likely to outnumber electric LDVs by 10%.
• Public charging ratios may fall below the 1:10 suggested by the EU, as seen in Norway (1:19).
• Policy consistency and global cooperation will be essential for achieving climate goals and sustainable EV transitions.

Conclusion

The Global EV Outlook 2018 highlights the rapid growth of the EV market, driven by policy support, technological advancements, and economic incentives. It underscores the importance of battery innovation, charging infrastructure development, and material supply stability for the successful transition to electric mobility. The report also emphasizes the need for comprehensive and adaptive policies to ensure sustainability, affordability, and market integration.