美国2023-2025年经济展望-英-29页_5mb

报告摘要

GDP Growth: Forecasted real GDP growth stands at 2.4% for 2023, 1.7% for 2024, and a rebound to 2.0% in 2025.
Inflation: Year-over-year core CPI inflation is projected to decrease to 4.0% in 2023Q4, settling at 2.5% by 2025Q4.
Monetary Policy: The Fed reached the terminal rate for tightening in late 2024, initiating cuts by 25bps every three months.
Labor Market: Job growth slowed to an average of 240k/month in 2023, projected to decline further in 2024 but rebound to 1.1M total in 2025.

Consumption Growth: Contribution to GDP growth peaked at 2.7pp in Q3 2023, expected to decline due to rising interest rates.
Housing Market: Single-family starts projected to reach 988k units by 2025Q4; multi-family starts cooling to 429k units.
Bond Market Volatility: Driven by uncertainty on monetary policy, fiscal deficits, and term premiums, not "bond vigilantes."
Interests Payments: Exceeding defense and gross investment spending from 2023Q4, with a deficit averaging 6.0% in 2024–25.

Recession Risk: Elevated due to high mortgage rates and potential misreading of economic momentum.
Geopolitical Uncertainty: Escalation of the Israel-Hamas conflict could disrupt oil supplies.
CRE and Banking: Commercial real estate defaults pose risks to regional banks.

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