2026年能源转型指数2026_82页_8mb

报告摘要

Energy Transition Index 2026 Summary

Core Content

The Energy Transition Index (ETI) 2026 highlights a slowing global energy transition, driven by external shocks, structural constraints and a decline in enabling conditions. It evaluates the performance of energy systems across 120 countries using 44 indicators, focusing on system performance and transition readiness.

Main Findings

Overall Progress: The overall ETI score increased by only +0.03%, indicating a near-stall in global transition momentum.
System Performance: Improved by +0.43%, driven by gains in equity and sustainability, although security declined by -0.9%, marking the first drop in this dimension in over a decade.
Transition Readiness: Declined for the first time in over a decade by -0.76%, with finance and investment seeing the sharpest drop (-1.8%) and regulation and political commitment also weakening (-1.2%).
Affordability and Security: Affordability improvements are fragile due to ongoing geopolitical and macroeconomic tensions, which have kept energy price pressures high.
Demand Growth: Electricity demand is growing rapidly (4.4% in 2024, 3.0% in 2025), driven by electrification, cooling, digital infrastructure, AI-enabled data centres, and economic growth.
Investment Concentration: Over 75% of clean energy investment is concentrated in a few economies, while emerging and developing economies face higher financing costs.
Project Delays: Over 2,500 GW of projects are awaiting grid connections, highlighting the integration challenge of new energy capacity into existing systems.

Key Trends and Signals

A Pause in Progress: The overall progress in the energy transition has flatlined, with transition readiness declining for the first time in over a decade.
Rising Pressure: The transition is under compounding stress, including geopolitical fragmentation, supply and price volatility, accelerating demand, and concentrated capital.
Shifting Priorities: Energy security is now a core determinant of competitiveness. Countries integrating resilience into system design are better positioned to attract investment, but this risks increasing regional divergence.

Top Three Priorities for the Future

Strengthen Security, Affordability and Resilience: Focus on diversification, grid reliability, infrastructure robustness, and mineral supply chain stability.
Unblock Delivery: Address permitting delays, grid integration bottlenecks, and infrastructure gaps to ensure new capacity can be deployed effectively.
Increase Investability: Promote stable policy, credible regulation, and better risk-sharing to attract and direct investment towards transition needs.

Country Performance

Advanced economies dominate the top rankings, with Sweden, Finland, and Denmark maintaining leading positions.
China, Brazil, and India continue to shape global dynamics.
Emerging economies face greater trade-offs due to limited fiscal space, high import dependence, and restricted capital access.
56% of countries improved their ETI scores, but only 24% advanced across all performance dimensions, showing the increasing difficulty of balancing sustainability, security, and equity.

ETI Framework

The ETI is a weighted composite index based on two sub-indices: system performance (60%) and transition readiness (40%).
System performance evaluates security, equity, and sustainability using 22 indicators.
Transition readiness includes five core enablers: regulation and political commitment, infrastructure, education and human capital, innovation, and finance and investment.
New Indicators: "AI readiness" and "clean technology minerals supply chain exposure" were added to reflect the growing importance of digital capabilities and strategic resources in the energy transition.

Conclusion

The 2026 ETI underscores that while clean energy deployment continues to accelerate, emissions remain stable due to continued reliance on fossil fuels and rising demand. The transition is becoming more uneven, with security emerging as a central challenge. Sustaining progress will require stronger enabling conditions, including stable policy frameworks, credible delivery pathways, and improved institutions. The window for action is narrowing, and the gap between ambition and delivery is widening.

Key Viewpoints

The energy transition is not reversing, but it is fracturing and becoming more uneven.
Security is now a core determinant of competitiveness and investment attractiveness.
Affordability improvements are fragile, and external shocks can quickly reverse them.
System performance is advancing, but transition readiness is weakening, highlighting the need for structural reforms.
Investment concentration and policy uncertainty are major barriers to global progress.

Critical Information

Global energy investment reached $3.3 trillion in 2025, with $2.3 trillion directed to clean energy.
Renewables and nuclear generated 42% of global electricity in 2025, up from 40% in 2024.
Energy-related CO₂ emissions remained broadly flat at around 38 Gt, while total GHG emissions reached a record 60.6 Gt CO₂e.
AI readiness and clean technology minerals supply chain exposure are now key indicators in the ETI framework.
System performance is measured across security, equity, and sustainability.
Transition readiness is influenced by policy, finance, infrastructure, innovation, and human capital.

Summary of the ETI

The 2026 Energy Transition Index shows that the global energy transition is under strain, with progress slowing and enabling conditions weakening. While clean energy deployment continues to rise, emissions remain stable, and system performance is increasingly constrained by security risks and structural bottlenecks. The framework emphasizes the need for balanced outcomes across security, equity, and sustainability, and highlights the importance of investment, policy, and infrastructure in driving the transition forward.