2025-06-11-Jefferies-TransAlta公司（TA）_为数据中心上行潜力而来_因AESO电价上涨而留_14页_1mb

TransAlta Corp Equity Research Summary

Key Recommendations

• Rating Upgrade: To BUY from Hold previously.
• Price Target: C$20.00 per share (previously C$12.00), implying approximately 40% upside.

Rationale for Upgrade

• AESO Power Price Uplift: The Alberta Electric System Operator (AESO) power prices are expected to rise significantly, driven by large load integration in 2027/2028. Forward curve adjustments and stakeholder discussions support higher prices, with FY27 AESO pool prices projected at mid-C$60s versus prior C$50.92, leading to substantial free cash flow increases.
• FCF Yield: TransAlta's trailing FY28 FCF yield of 14-15% is among the highest in the peer group (e.g., peers like CEG, TLN, and CPX have lower yields), offering attractive income potential.
• Data Center Upside: Incremental contribution from data center allocation (up to 215 MW potential) adds modest value, but the primary driver is higher AESO power prices, making the upgrade valid even without data center reliance.

Valuation and Financial Highlights

• Updated Estimates: FY27 (valuation year) adj. EBITDA increased by 22% to C$1,228 million, supporting the price target; EPS and FCF are revised higher.
• SOTP Analysis: Valuation through sum-of-the-parts methodology assigns values based on asset classes, emphasizing the Alberta merchant portfolio's high yield. Net corporate drag is accounted for, resulting in C$20 target vs. current C$14.30.
• Historical Context: The equity research targets a total return of 41.7% (including dividend yield and potential price appreciation).

Catalysts

• Positive: AESO updates on REM (regulatory environmental management), large load integration announcements (e.g., 1.2 GW interconnection), Centralia coal-to-gas conversion progress, data center collocation.
• Negative: Regulatory or legislative changes in AB, supply/demand imbalances, disappointment if data center allocations fall short.

Key Risks

• Factors Affecting PT/Rating: Lower-than-expected AESO prices, weak merchant portfolio performance, project execution risks (e.g., Centralia), transmission upgrades, competition from peers. Assessments show higher confidence in power price visibility now.

Financial Summary (Excerpts)

• Estimated Financials (2025-2028):

  Year	FY2025 (Est.)	FY2026 (Est.)	FY2027 (Est.)	FY2028 (Est.)
  EBITDA (Million C$)	1,190	1,228
  EPS (C$)	0.75	0.56	0.75 (FY28 estimate)

  • EBIDTA and EPS projections improved due to higher power prices.

• 0utlook: Current share price C$14.30, with a market cap of C$4.3B. Jefferies maintains a "Buy" rating, highlighting superior FCF yield and exposure to rising Alberta power prices as core strengths.