20260831-招银国际-中国人寿-02628.HK-Strong_underwriting_and_investment_gains_drive_interim_DPS_beat_Raise_TP_to_HK_39_10页_1mb

China Life (2628 HK) Summary

Core Content Overview

China Life (2628 HK) reported strong financial results for the first half of 2026 (1H26), demonstrating robust performance driven by improved underwriting and significant investment gains. The group's net profit surged 228.6% YoY to RMB134.5bn, with the second quarter (2Q26) seeing an 848% increase to RMB114.98bn. This exceeded market expectations, resulting in a 50.4% YoY increase in interim DPS to RMB0.358 per share. The insurer's net asset value (NAV) rose 11.6% HoH, and ROE increased to 21.1%, a 13.2% YoY improvement.

Key Highlights

• Net Profit Growth:

  • 1H26: RMB134.5bn (+228.6% YoY)
  • 2Q26: RMB114.98bn (+848% YoY)
  • Excluding short-term equity market fluctuations, net profit still grew 12.7% YoY to RMB57.6bn.

• New Business Value (NBV):

  • 1H26: RMB38.2bn (+33.7% YoY)
  • Agency NBV: RMB33.5bn (+37.5% YoY)
  • Bancassurance & others NBV: RMB4.7bn (+11.7% YoY)
  • NBV margin increased to 22.9% (+3.6% YoY)

• Investment Performance:

  • Total investment assets reached RMB7.95tn by 1H26, up 7% HoH.
  • Core equity exposure increased to RMB1.52tn (19.2% mix), up 21.1% HoH.
  • Investment income rose 147% YoY to RMB314.5bn, with TPL assets contributing heavily to the increase.
  • Total investment yield (TIY) increased to 5.58% (+2.29% YoY), while net investment yield (NIY) slightly dropped to 2.71%.

• Solvency Ratios:

  • Core solvency ratio: 156.8% (1H26)
  • Comprehensive solvency ratio: 197.8% (1H26)
  • Both ratios remained robust, providing ample room for growth and expansion.

• Asset-Liability Management (A/L):

  • Effective A/L duration gap narrowed to <1.3 years, better than peers.
  • Guaranteed liability cost for in-force and new book dropped to <2.9%/~1.73%, indicating improved management.

• Valuation:

  • Current price: HK$29.32
  • Target price (TP): HK$39.00 (+33.0% upside)
  • Implied P/EV: 0.6x FY26E
  • Implied P/B: 1.3x FY26E

• EPS Forecasts:

  • FY26E: RMB7.67
  • FY27E: RMB6.10
  • FY28E: RMB6.55
  • These forecasts have been revised upward from previous estimates.

• Key Risks:

  • Intensified equity market volatility
  • Tightening regulatory scrutiny
  • Prolonged low-interest rate environment
  • Slower-than-expected new business sales
  • Margin deterioration

Main Points

• Strong Performance: China Life delivered a strong interim DPS beat, driven by a combination of improved underwriting and significant investment gains.
• Investment Gains: Investment income surged 147% YoY, with unrealized gains from TPL assets playing a major role.
• NBV Growth: NBV grew at an industry-leading rate, with agency and bancassurance channels both contributing positively.
• Solvency: Core and comprehensive solvency ratios remained strong, supporting future growth.
• Valuation Adjustments: The TP was raised to HK$39, reflecting improved business quality and earnings growth.
• EPS Forecasts: Revised upward for FY26-28E, indicating optimism about future performance.

Key Information

• Shareholding Structure:

  • Ping An Asset Management Co., Ltd.: 17.1%
  • Citigroup Inc: 6.1%

• Stock Performance:

  • 1-month return: 2.3%
  • 3-month return: 1.7%
  • 6-month return: -7.2%

• Market Cap: HK$828,729.8 million

• Average 3-Month Turnover: HK$1,496.4 million

• 52-Week High/Low: HK$35.52 / HK$21.24

Analyst Recommendations

• Rating: BUY
• Target Price: HK$39.00
• Previous Target Price: HK$34.00

Summary Table

Financial Highlights

• Insurance Revenue: Increased by 5.3% YoY in 1H26.
• Insurance Service Expenses: Decreased by 20.1% YoY.
• Insurance Service Results: Rose by 126.7% YoY.
• Net Investment Income: Surged to RMB335.374bn in 1H26.
• Net Profit Attributable to Shareholders: RMB216.832bn in 1H26.

Conclusion

China Life's 1H26 results reflect strong performance in both underwriting and investment, leading to a significant increase in net profit and DPS. The company's improved asset-liability management and strong solvency ratios support its potential for continued growth. The updated EPS forecasts and raised target price indicate positive expectations for future performance, despite the identified risks.