20260821-招银国际-Strong_2Q_beat_overseas_expansion_gains_full_momentum_8页_1mb

Futu Holdings (FUTU US) 2Q26 Summary

Core Content and Key Highlights

Futu Holdings (FUTU US) reported its 2Q26 results, significantly exceeding both the analyst and market expectations. The company's performance was driven by robust client acquisition, increased assets under management (AUM), and strong trading engagement. Total revenues reached HK$7.2bn, a 35.6% year-over-year (YoY) and 23% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) increase, surpassing the previous consensus estimates. Net income and non-GAAP adjusted net income also showed substantial growth, reaching HK$3.6bn and HK$3.7bn respectively, with a 41.7% YoY and 40.1% QoQ increase.

Main Points and Key Figures

Revenue and Profit Growth

• Total Revenue: HK$7.2bn, up 35.6% YoY and 23% QoQ.
• Net Income: HK$3.6bn, up 41.7% YoY and 24% QoQ (after excluding the CSRC administrative penalty).
• Non-GAAP Adjusted Net Income: HK$3.7bn, up 40.1% YoY and 23.7% QoQ.

Client Growth

• Net New Funded Accounts: 252k, tracking ~60% of the full-year target.
• Main Contributors: MY, HK, and SG.
• Client AUM: Reached HK$1.4tn, up 44% YoY and 14.5% QoQ.

Trading Volume

• Total Trading Volume: HK$6.42tn, up 79% YoY and 55% QoQ.
• US Stock Trading Volume: HK$5.02tn, up 86% YoY and 67% QoQ, representing 78% of total trading volume.

Market Share

• HK Stock Market: Futu's market share increased to 3.42% in 2Q26.
• US Stock Market: Market share rose to 0.47% in 2Q26.

Strategic Developments and Product Launches

• Overseas Expansion: Gained momentum with ~60% of total funded accounts from international markets.
• Product Launches:
  • Moomoo Financial: Launched prediction markets for US retail investors, with >200mn event contracts traded in the first month.
  • HK: Launched securities-backed margin financing for virtual assets.
  • Thailand: Obtained Type A license from Thailand SEC, pending final approval.

Earnings Forecasts and Valuation

• EPS Forecasts Raised: FY26-28E EPS forecasts updated to HK$74.7/87.0/103.5 (previously HK$66/80/95).
• Target Price Raised: To US$158, implying 17x/14x FY26/27E P/E.
• Valuation: Trading at 11.5x/10x FY26/27E P/E, at a discount of >40% compared to key global peers.

Key Operating Metrics

• Brokerage Commission Income: HK$3.361bn, up 30% YoY and 27% QoQ.
• Interest Income: HK$3.124bn, up 37% YoY and 18% QoQ.
• Other Income: HK$716mn, up 61% YoY and 27% QoQ.
• Take Rate: Dropped to 5.23bps, reflecting a lower mix of traded derivatives and higher-priced US stocks.
• Client Retention: Remained robust at >98% in 2Q26 despite cross-border fund flow tightening.

3Q26 Outlook

• Net New Funded Accounts: Slid QoQ due to heightened market volatility.
• Client Asset Inflows: Returned to normal levels in HK and overseas markets.
• Trading Volume: Moderated QoQ due to easing sentiment.

Risk Factors

• Lower-than-Expected Turnover: Amid easing sentiment.
• Softening Trends in Client Asset Inflows: Across key markets.
• Sharp Interest Rate Shocks.
• Significant Drawdowns: In US/HK stock and crypto markets.
• Slower New Market Entry.
• Tightening Regulatory Oversight.

Analyst Ratings and Investment Outlook

• Analyst Rating: BUY (Maintain).
• Target Price: US$158.00 (up from US$145.00).
• CMBIGM Outlook: Positive on Futu's progress in overseas expansion and potential for AUM growth to drive earnings quality.

Peer Comparison

• P/E Ratios: Futu's P/E for FY26E is 11.9x, lower than the median of key global peers (20.1x).
• Discount to Peers: Over 40% discount to key global peers.

Financial Summary

Valuation Metrics

Summary of Key Takeaways

• Topline Growth: Driven by expansions across all lines, with brokerage commission, interest income, and other income all showing strong growth.
• Geographic Expansion: MY, HK, and SG were the main contributors to new funded accounts, with overseas markets contributing ~60% of total funded accounts.
• Client AUM Growth: Strong inflows and valuation hikes led to a 44% YoY increase in client AUM.
• Trading Volume: US stocks dominated the trading volume, contributing 78% of total trading volume.
• Earnings Forecast: Raised due to strong 2Q26 performance.
• Valuation: At a significant discount to global peers, suggesting potential upside.
• Risks: Include regulatory changes, market volatility, and interest rate fluctuations.

Conclusion

Futu Holdings is demonstrating strong performance in its 2Q26 results, driven by robust client acquisition, AUM growth, and trading activity. The company is expanding internationally and launching new products to enhance its market position. Despite some challenges, the analyst remains constructive about the company's future prospects, raising the target price and EPS forecasts. The stock is currently undervalued relative to its peers, offering potential for growth.