20171213-法国巴黎银行-Colombia__Local_Debt_and_Pension_Funds_Monitor_-_November_2017_9页_262kb

Summary of the Latin America Strategy Document: Colombia - November 2017

Core Content

This document provides an overview of the financial landscape in Colombia, focusing on public debt and pension fund holdings as of November 2017. It is produced by BNP Paribas and includes insights from the Ministry of Finance and the Superintendencia Financiera de Colombia, with data presented in tables and charts.

Main Points

Public Debt Overview

• Non-residents' share in public debt:
  The share of non-residents in Colombia's public debt increased by 2% in November 2017 to USD 22bn, representing 26.3% of the total public debt.

• Foreign investors' participation:
  Foreign investors have been increasing their share in the public debt market since March 2016. Non-resident debt holdings now represent 46.5% of international reserves, an increase of 8 percentage points year-over-year (y/y).

• Debt composition:
  The breakdown of Colombia's public debt in November 2017 shows:

  • Domestic Public Debt: COP 252.5 trillion (or 252.5 billion USD), 0% of total debt.
  • Pension Funds: COP 68.8 trillion (or 68.8 billion USD), 27.2% of total debt.
  • Non-residents: COP 66.5 trillion (or 66.5 billion USD), 26.3% of total debt.
  • Public Sector: COP 58.1 trillion (or 58.1 billion USD), 23.0% of total debt.
  • Commercial Banks: COP 41.7 trillion (or 41.7 billion USD), 16.5% of total debt.
  • Others: COP 17.4 trillion (or 17.4 billion USD), 6.9% of total debt.

Pension Fund Holdings

• Assets Under Management (AUM):
  The total AUM of Colombia's pension fund system in November 2017 was USD 83.8bn, showing a 0.8% monthly increase or USD 0.7bn.

• Asset distribution:

  • Fixed Income: 52% of total AUM, with 46% in local fixed income and 6% in foreign fixed income.
  • Equities: 45% of total AUM, with 18% in local equities and 27% in foreign equities.
  • Other Investments: 2% of total AUM.

• Changes in November:

  • Local equity holdings increased by USD 0.2bn.
  • Foreign equity holdings decreased by USD 0.2bn.
  • This marks the first reduction in foreign equities by Colombia's pension funds this year, following a 33% increase earlier in the year.

• Fund profile distribution:

  • Mandatory funds account for 88% of the total AUM.
  • Moderate profile funds represent 73% of the system's AUM and saw the largest increase in November.
  • Unemployment funds declined due to seasonality.

Key Information

• Pension fund trends:

  • Mandatory funds have been increasing their AUM by 19% year-to-date (YTD).
  • Voluntary funds have increased by 17% YTD.
  • Unemployment funds have seen a decline since February 2017.

• Foreign investment trends:

  • Foreign fixed income holdings increased by 5% in November, reaching USD 0.25bn.
  • Foreign equities holdings decreased by 0.7% in November, despite a 33% increase earlier in the year.

• Debt maturity:

  • The Colombian nominal debt market has maturities spread across the next few years, with the largest maturities in 2022, 2024, and 2026.
  • Real rate bonds show a decrease in size for longer maturities, except for the 2033 bond.

• Market context:

  • The report includes charts and tables to visualize the trends in public debt and pension fund holdings.
  • The non-residents' holdings of local debt have been increasing since March 2016, with a 3-month moving average showing a consistent upward trend.

Contacts

• Gabriel Gersztein - Head of FX & IR Latam Strategy
  Email: gabriel.gersztein@br.bnpparibas.com
  Phone: +55 11 3841 3421

• Gustavo Mendonca - FX & IR Latam Strategy
  Email: gustavo.mendonca@br.bnpparibas.com
  Phone: +55 11 3841 3445

• Samuel Castro - FX & IR Latam Strategist
  Email: samuel.castro@br.bnpparibas.com
  Phone: +55 11 3841 3492

Legal Disclaimer

• This document is non-independent research and may be subject to conflicts of interest.
• It is intended as a marketing communication and not as investment research.
• It is not intended for retail investors and is only for Relevant Persons as defined under applicable financial regulations.
• No guarantees are made regarding the accuracy or completeness of the information.
• Past performance is not indicative of future results.
• No liability is accepted for any losses resulting from reliance on this document.
• Confidentiality is required, and the document may not be distributed without prior consent.
• ETFs and options discussed in the document may involve high risk and are only suitable for sophisticated investors.
• The document does not constitute a prospectus or public offering in any jurisdiction.

Conclusion

The document highlights the increasing foreign participation in Colombia's public debt market and the mixed performance of pension fund holdings, particularly in equities. It serves as a strategic analysis for professional clients and is subject to legal and regulatory disclosures.