2012年-CEPS欧洲政策研究中心_The_Strategic_Consequences_of_the_Global_Financial_and_Economic_Crisis_33页_276kb

Summary of The Strategic Consequences of the Global Financial and Economic Crisis

Core Content

This working paper by the European Security Forum (ESF) explores the broader strategic implications of the global financial and economic crisis on international relations, particularly focusing on the United States, China, the EU, and Russia. It analyzes how the crisis has affected foreign policies, economic dependencies, and the role of governance in shaping global power dynamics.

Main Views and Key Points

1. Impact on EU Foreign Policy

• Shift in Focus: The financial crisis has prompted a reevaluation of the EU's role in international affairs, with a noticeable move away from promoting liberal democratic values and economic liberalism.
• Protectionism Concerns: Despite official assurances, there are early signs of a shift towards "protection lite," where EU states are increasingly protecting their own markets rather than pursuing liberal internationalism.
• Internal Contradictions: The EU has historically been reluctant to fully integrate its financial sector, leading to fragmented responses. This has allowed for more nationalistic approaches, such as restrictions on foreign investment and the rise of populist sentiments.
• Normative Power: The EU's claim of being a "normative power" is challenged by the crisis, as it fails to demonstrate a coherent strategy that aligns its economic policies with its security objectives.

2. US-China Financial Interdependence

• Critical Dependency: The US-China current account imbalance has become a central issue, with China financing a large portion of the US deficit.
• Risk of Instability: This financial interdependence is described as dangerous, as it exposes the US to non-democratic financing sources.
• Lack of Correction: There is no indication that the US-China imbalance will be corrected, and the US remains reliant on Chinese capital despite the risks.

3. Russia's Transition and Regional Influence

• Shift to Decline: Russia's economic model, previously characterized by "automatic growth," is now facing a period of "automatic decline" due to the global recession.
• Regional Diplomacy: Russia's role as a provider of financial aid to CIS countries (e.g., Ukraine) is increasing, leading to potential cooperation with the EU in regional policy coordination.
• Domestic Adaptability: Russian society is portrayed as adaptable, able to endure economic hardship, but the political leadership may face strain.

4. The Fate of Liberalism

• Crisis as Governance Issue: The crisis is fundamentally a crisis of bad governance, not of market capitalism itself.
• EU's Mixed Economy: European economies are mixed and continue to support liberal market structures, even as they face internal challenges.
• Global Power Shifts: While some predict a decline in Western influence, the crisis may also lead to a stronger international focus on governance and regulation, aligning with the EU's supposed niche in global affairs.

5. Resource Diversion and Development Aid

• Risk of Cuts: Development assistance and renewable energy funding are at risk of being reduced due to the financial strain.
• Security Link: The EU has linked development and security, arguing that aid cuts could undermine its soft power and credibility.
• Defence Spending: Defence budgets may also face pressure, but this could be an opportunity to streamline and improve efficiency in European military spending.

Conclusion

• Paradox of Crisis: The crisis may lead to a paradoxical outcome for the EU, where the need to retreat from global liberalism could be counterproductive.
• Need for Realism: The paper suggests that the EU must move beyond idealistic notions of "normative power" and adopt more pragmatic approaches to international engagement.
• Long-Term Implications: The crisis could reshape global power structures, with emerging powers like China and Russia gaining more influence, while the West faces challenges in maintaining its economic and political dominance.

Key Themes

• Financial Interdependence: The US-China relationship is central, with China's financial support for the US creating both opportunities and vulnerabilities.
• Governance and Stability: The crisis highlights the importance of good governance and regulation, both in the West and globally.
• EU's Strategic Role: The EU is expected to play a more active role in regional coordination, especially with Russia, while also rethinking its approach to global liberal values.
• Economic and Political Shifts: The crisis may lead to a more multipolar world, with the EU, China, and Russia as key actors, each with distinct approaches to economic and political challenges.

Authors and Contributors

• Michael Emerson: Chairman of the ESF session, emphasizing the need for a nuanced understanding of the crisis.
• Richard Youngs: Analyzes the impact of the crisis on EU foreign policy and the shift towards protectionism.
• Brad Setser: Focuses on US-China financial interdependence and its strategic implications.
• Fyodor Lukyanov: Discusses Russia's transition from growth to decline and its regional influence.
• Lanxin Xiang: Advocates for a shift in Chinese economic policy towards social welfare and education.
• Jørgen Mortensen: Examines the social consequences of the crisis, contrasting them with the 1930s.

Final Thoughts

The financial crisis has not only reshaped economic landscapes but also has profound strategic implications for international relations. It challenges the dominance of Western liberal models and may lead to a more balanced, multipolar world order. However, the EU must remain vigilant and avoid a complete retreat from its liberal ideals, as this could harm its long-term interests and credibility.