波兰能源战略2040进展概要-英-17页_2mb

Poland PEP 2040 Energy Strategy Analysis Summary

Background:
The report evaluates Poland's upcoming revision of the PEP 2040 (Polish Energy Strategy to 2040), published on February 6, 2023, authored by Dr Paw eł Czyżak, Aleksander Śniegocki, and Zofia Wętman. It highlights that the current strategy is insufficient to meet climate and energy security goals, with Poland risking becoming the last EU economy dependent on fossil fuels by 2030.

Key Findings:

• Poland's renewable energy capacity reached 22 GW by 2022, meeting its 2030 target early, but the proposed PEP 2040 aims for only 50-60 GW by 2040, half of what studies suggest is feasible.
• Doubling renewable ambitions to 100 GW by 2040 could align with EU net-zero targets, reducing fossil fuel reliance and mitigating economic risks.
• Current risks include energy shortages, volatile prices, and reduced competitiveness due to over-dependence on coal and gas.
• Major barriers to renewable deployment include restrictive spatial planning rules (e.g., the 10-hour rule), slow permitting processes exceeding EU standards, and inadequate grid expansion, leading to delays and denied projects.

Recommendations:

• The updated PEP 2040 should set higher targets, aiming for above 50% renewable generation by 2030 and net-zero power by 2040.
• Immediate policy reforms are needed, including simplifying permitting, modernizing grids for better connectivity, and utilizing EU support funds under RE Power EU for renewable acceleration.
• Shifting focus to renewables obsoletes debates on coal vs. gas, as it permanently lowers costs and enhances system reliability.

Conclusion:
Poland must adopt a more ambitious PEP 2040 strategy to achieve renewable expansion, ensure energy security, and avoid negative economic and climate implications, aligning with EU frameworks like EU climate laws and RE Power EU initiatives. Failure to do so risks lagging behind peers and compromising national prosperity.