20260422-招银国际-中国平安-02318.HK-1Q26_preview_Expect_resilient_OPAT,_NPAT_to_slide_on_equity_swings_solid_NBV_uptrend_5页_846kb

Ping An (2318 HK) 1Q26 Company Update Summary

Core Content Overview

This report provides an analysis of Ping An's 1Q26 earnings and outlook, highlighting the performance of its core segments and key financial metrics. The report also includes valuation insights and investment recommendations, along with risk factors and disclosures.

Key Financial Highlights

Earnings Forecast

• Group OPAT is expected to rise by 3.5% YoY to RMB39.2bn, driven by resilient performance in the Life & Health (L&H) and Asset Management (AM) segments.
• Life OPAT is forecast to increase by 4.5% YoY, supported by steady insurance AUM growth and a relatively stable interest rate.
• P&C OPAT is likely to decline due to weakened investment income despite improved underwriting performance.
• PAB (Property & Casualty) is expected to show an earnings inflection, with a narrowed NIM decline and better operating efficiency.
• Group NPAT may decline by 10% YoY due to heightened equity market volatility, with CSI300 and HSI down 3.9% and 3.3%, respectively.

NBV (New Business Value)

• NBV is projected to increase by 19.2% YoY in 1Q26, driven by strong new business sales.
• The NBV margin may retreat modestly due to a product mix shift towards lower-margin policies and increased contributions from Bancassurance and community finance channels.
• Looking ahead to 2026E, L&H NBV is expected to maintain a high-teens YoY increase.

Valuation

• The stock is currently trading at 0.6x FY26E P/EV and 0.8x FY26E P/B.
• The target price is revised to HK$86 from HK$90, implying 0.83x FY26E P/EV and 1.2x FY26E P/B.
• The dividend yield is expected to rise to 5.4% in FY26E.
• The avg. three-year forward operating ROE is above 13%.

Investment Recommendation

• Maintain BUY rating.
• The stock is expected to deliver a potential return of over 15% over the next 12 months.

Key Catalysts

• L&H CSM release and balance growth inflection in 2026E.
• PAB profit turnaround.
• Continued de-risking process to ease the AM drag.

Key Risks

• Regulatory tightening on life insurance and financial conglomerates.
• Significantly heightened equity market volatility.
• Prolonged low-interest rate environment.
• Intense pricing competition in the P&C sector.
• Asset quality deterioration.

Shareholding and Market Data

• Market Cap: HK$1,113,642.0m
• Avg 3 mths t/o: HK$2,721.7m
• 52w High/Low: HK$73.45 / HK$44.70
• Total Issued Shares: 18,108.0m
• Current Price: HK$61.50
• Target Price: HK$86.00
• Up/Downside: 39.8%

Shareholding Structure

• Charoen Pokphand Group Company Ltd: 13.0%
• JPMorgan Chase & Co.: 8.4%

Analyst Certification

• The analyst certifies that the views expressed reflect their personal opinions and that no compensation is directly or indirectly related to the views in this report.
• The analyst has not traded in the stock covered in the past 30 days and will not trade in the next 3 business days.
• The analyst confirms no financial interest in the Hong Kong listed companies covered.

CMBIGM Ratings

• BUY: Stock with potential return of over 15% over next 12 months.
• OUTPERFORM: Industry expected to outperform the relevant broad market benchmark.
• MARKET-PERFORM: Industry expected to perform in-line with the relevant broad market benchmark.
• UNDERPERFORM: Industry expected to underperform the relevant broad market benchmark.

Disclosures

• The report is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.
• No liability is accepted for any loss, damage, or expense resulting from reliance on the report.
• The report is intended solely for intended recipients and may not be reproduced or distributed without prior consent.

Additional Notes

• The report is not suitable for all investors.
• Past performance is not indicative of future results.
• Market risks and investment risks are acknowledged, and investors are encouraged to consult professional financial advisors.