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GS Early Morning Research Recap - May 27, 2025

Core Content Summary

This document provides a summary of Goldman Sachs' early morning research findings from May 27, 2025, focusing on ratings and target price changes across various regions and sectors, as well as macroeconomic and market insights.

Key Themes and Insights

Macro/Global

• US Inflation and Tariffs: Goldman Sachs expects a one-time inflation boost from tariffs, with no long-term impact.
• Oil Supply Outlook: Strong supply is anticipated in 2025-2026, with tighter conditions expected later.
• Global FX and Rates: Duration hot potato and bond market dynamics are key focus areas for global FX traders.
• US Drug Pricing Policy: Changes in drug pricing policy are expected to have modest effects on inflation.
• Emerging Markets (EM): EM equities have shown resilience despite rising US bond yields and trade uncertainty.

Americas

• Machinery and Infrastructure: Increased allocation to Machinery due to a three-year supply inflection, with rating changes.
• Clean Energy: Trump's executive orders are expected to accelerate nuclear power adoption in the US.
• Retail: Special focus on lower-income consumer trends and management conversations. Several retailers like Burlington Stores and Williams-Sonoma reported earnings results with mixed impacts.
• Financials: Stifel Financial shows strong organic growth despite client cash decline. Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) is viewed positively due to improving mortgage growth.
• Healthcare: Emerging biotech discussions highlight potential in MRUS' HNSCC update and other pharmaceuticals.
• TMT: Notable updates include Salesforce's in-line results, Apple's tariff comments, and strong performance from companies like Workday and Intuit.

Europe

• Machinery and Infrastructure: FLSmidth is upgraded to Buy due to margin uplift. IMI Plc is downgraded to Neutral due to slowing short-cycle growth.
• Retail: European consumer HAC is lowered to c.+2%, with four key themes for 2025.
• Energy and Utilities: Acciona Energia is expected to face earnings downgrades, remaining Sell. Lufthansa and UniCredit have updated estimates.
• Healthcare: Focus on pharmaceuticals, with AZN and GMAB highlighted from ASCO abstracts.
• Multi-Industry: Global capacity utilization data is used to assess multi-industry trends. Global Chemicals and other sectors show key insights.

Asia

• Financials: Cathay Financial Holding is downgraded to Neutral after 1Q25 earnings performance. Varun Beverages is initiated at Buy.
• Industrials and Basic Materials: Sumitomo Metal Mining is downgraded to Sell due to BEV demand slowdown. Meituan and BYD are highlighted as Buy due to strong performance and growth potential.
• Tech and Semiconductors: Focus on advanced chip testing, AI PCB outlook, and growth drivers. Companies like Tuya and Lenovo are viewed positively.
• Retail and Consumer Goods: Japan's retail sector sees improved service orders and merger updates. China's retail and spirits sectors show mixed performance with some companies downgraded and others upgraded.
• TMT: Companies like Tuya, Lenovo, and others are highlighted for their AI initiatives and growth prospects.

Rating and Conviction List Changes

Americas

• KBR Inc. (KBR): Downgraded to Neutral from Buy.
• Terex Corp. (TEX): Upgraded to Buy from Neutral.
• Atmus Filtration Technologies Inc. (ATMU): Downgraded to Neutral from Buy.
• Cummins Inc. (CMI): Upgraded to Buy from Neutral.

Europe

• FLSmidth & Co. (FLS.CO): Upgraded to Buy from Neutral.
• IMI Plc (IMI.L): Downgraded to Neutral from Buy.

Asia

• Varun Beverages Ltd. (VARB.BO): Initiated at Buy.
• MPI Corp. (6223.TWO): Initiated at Buy.
• Winway Technology Co. (6515.TW): Initiated at Buy.
• Cathay Financial Holding (2882.TW): Downgraded to Neutral from Buy.
• Sumitomo Metal Mining (5713.T): Downgraded to Sell from Buy.

Target Price Changes (10% or greater)

Key Takeaways

• Machinery and Infrastructure: Increased allocation and rating changes reflect positive outlook on supply inflection.
• Nuclear Power: Expected to see accelerated adoption in the US due to Trump's executive orders.
• Emerging Markets: EM equities remain resilient, with some companies showing strong performance and others facing challenges.
• Retail and Consumer Goods: European and Asian retail sectors are under review, with focus on consumer behavior and earnings performance.
• TMT Sector: Strong performance from AI and tech-driven companies, with some upgrades and initiations.
• Market Uncertainty: Trade and policy uncertainties continue to influence market dynamics and investment strategies.

Important Disclosures

Goldman Sachs may have conflicts of interest due to its business relationships with companies covered in its research reports. Investors should consider this report as a single factor in making investment decisions. For further disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Appendix or visit www.gs.com/research/hedge.html.