2009年-世界发展银行全球_Sudan_-_Toward_Sustainable_and_Broad-Based_Growth_160页_2mb

Summary: Toward Sustainable and Broad-Based Growth in Sudan

Core Content

This report, prepared by the World Bank, outlines the economic challenges and opportunities facing Sudan, particularly in the context of its oil-driven growth and the need to transition toward a more sustainable and broad-based growth model. It emphasizes the importance of diversifying the economy, improving governance, and enhancing the role of the private sector in driving long-term development.

Main Points

A. Oil-Led Growth Has Changed the Sudanese Economy, But Will It Last?

• Sudan has experienced its longest and strongest growth episode since independence, largely driven by oil revenues since 1999.
• The economy has grown fivefold in nominal GDP from $10 billion in 1999 to $53 billion in 2008.
• Per capita income has increased from $334 to $532 (constant 2000 USD) during the same period, indicating improved living standards.
• The economy has become more integrated with the global market, with a trade-to-GDP ratio rising from 25% in 2000 to 44% in 2008.
• Sudan has become one of the top recipients of FDI in Africa.
• The macroeconomic structure has undergone a significant change, with improved stability, lower inflation, and a more predictable business cycle.

However, the sustainability of this oil-led growth is under threat due to:

1. Economic Threats:

   • Over-reliance on oil revenue, which is volatile and not a long-term solution.
   • Neglect of non-oil sectors, leading to a "resource curse" where the economy becomes less competitive in non-commodity areas.
   • The dominance of the public sector, which has hindered the development of a robust private sector.

2. Political Threats:

   • Persistent spatial disparities between the center and periphery of the country.
   • The Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) has not fully resolved these imbalances, leading to potential future conflicts and political instability.

B. Toward a New Growth Vision

The report outlines a path toward a more balanced and sustainable growth model, focusing on:

• Macroeconomic Stability and Fiscal Management: Ensuring a reliable and sustainable fiscal framework to counter pro-cyclical and volatile policies.
• Private Sector-led Growth: Enhancing the investment climate and promoting competitiveness to foster broader economic growth.
• Agriculture Recovery: Revitalizing the agricultural sector through productivity improvements, better marketing, and research support.
• Comprehensive Growth Strategy for the South: Developing a tailored approach to support growth in Southern Sudan, considering its unique challenges and opportunities.
• Good Governance: Complementing technocratic reforms with improved governance to ensure transparency and accountability.

Key Information

Economic Trends

• GDP Growth: The Sudanese economy has grown significantly since 1999, with real GDP growth rates fluctuating between 5-11% during 1999-2008.
• Inflation: Average inflation rate dropped from 33% (1971-1991) to 8% since the advent of oil.
• Public Sector Expansion: The public sector's share in GDP increased from 6% to nearly 40% over the last decade.
• Trade Integration: Sudan's trade-to-GDP ratio has risen, reflecting greater integration into the global economy.

Oil Sector Overview

• Oil Production and Revenue: Oil production is expected to peak by 2012, with revenues likely to last for 20-30 years.
• Fiscal Volatility: Government spending is often pro-cyclical, exacerbating economic fluctuations.
• Resource Curse: The oil boom has led to macroeconomic deterioration, fiscal volatility, and governance issues.

Agriculture Sector

• Performance: The agricultural sector has seen improvements in productivity and export potential.
• Challenges: High marketing costs, low competitiveness, and underinvestment in research and infrastructure.
• Reforms: The Gezira Irrigation Scheme has undergone significant reforms, and lessons from Brazil and Thailand suggest the potential for growth in rainfed agriculture.

Services and Infrastructure

• Competitiveness: Improving the efficiency of the financial sector and reducing the high cost of services is crucial for non-oil growth.
• Infrastructure: Decentralization and public-private partnerships are needed to enhance infrastructure development, especially in remote areas.
• Transport and Power: High transport and electricity costs are major barriers to competitiveness, and improving infrastructure coverage is essential.

Southern Sudan

• Growth Diagnostic: A comprehensive growth strategy is necessary to address the specific needs and challenges of Southern Sudan.
• State-Level Constraints: Issues in Upper Nile and Eastern Equatoria states include poor infrastructure, high costs, and limited access to finance and markets.
• Government Partnerships: Collaboration with the private sector and international development partners is vital for sustainable growth.

Conclusion

The report underscores the need for Sudan to move beyond its oil-driven growth model and develop a more diversified and inclusive economy. It highlights the importance of fiscal discipline, private sector development, and agricultural reform to ensure long-term economic stability and growth. The transition to a broad-based growth strategy is not only an economic imperative but also a political one, given the risks of continued spatial disparities and governance failures.