2026全球风险报告_102页_18mb

Global Risks Report 2026 Summary

Core Content

The Global Risks Report 2026 is the 21st edition of the World Economic Forum's annual report, analyzing global risks across three timeframes: 2026, 2028, and 2036. It emphasizes the growing turbulence and uncertainty in the global landscape, driven by competition, technological acceleration, and the erosion of multilateral cooperation.

Main Findings

Global Risk Outlook

• Uncertainty is the defining theme of the global risks outlook in 2026.
• 50% of respondents expect a turbulent or stormy outlook over the next two years.
• This rises to 57% over the next 10 years, with only 1% anticipating a calm outlook.
• 40% and 32% of respondents view the global outlook as unsettled over the 2- and 10-year time frames, respectively.

Risk Rankings

Short Term (2 years)

1. Geoeconomic confrontation (18%)
2. Misinformation and disinformation (7%)
3. Societal polarization (7%)
4. Extreme weather events (6%)
5. State-based armed conflict (6%)
6. Cyber insecurity (5%)
7. Inequality (5%)
8. Erosion of human rights and/or civic freedoms (4%)
9. Pollution (4%)
10. Involuntary migration or displacement (4%)

Long Term (10 years)

1. Extreme weather events (12%)
2. Biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse (12%)
3. Critical change to Earth systems (12%)
4. Misinformation and disinformation (10%)
5. Adverse outcomes of AI technologies (10%)
6. Natural resource shortages (9%)
7. Inequality (9%)
8. Cyber insecurity (8%)
9. Societal polarization (8%)
10. Pollution (8%)

Key Risks and Trends

1. Geoeconomic Confrontation

• Most severe risk over the next two years.
• 18% of respondents selected it as the top risk for 2026.
• It has moved up two positions from last year.
• This risk is linked to increased competition, strategic rivalry, and economic weaponization.
• It threatens the interconnected global economy and is a key driver of global instability.

2. Misinformation and Disinformation

• Top short-term risk after geoeconomic confrontation.
• It has increased in ranking significantly, moving from #30 to #5 over the 10-year horizon.
• It is a major concern for both short and long-term global risks, with negative impacts on information integrity, democratic systems, and public trust.

3. Inequality

• Identified as the most interconnected global risk over the next decade.
• Second most concerning risk in 2026, following geoeconomic confrontation.
• It fuels other risks, including social unrest, economic instability, and erosion of the social contract.

4. Economic Risks

• Economic downturn and inflation have risen in ranking significantly over the two-year horizon.
• Asset bubble burst has also increased in ranking.
• Debt, natural resource shortages, and unemployment are key concerns in the long-term outlook.
• Economic risks are driven by geoeconomic confrontation, rising inflation, and volatility in global markets.

5. Technological Risks

• AI at large is a major long-term risk, with sharpest rise in ranking.
• Cyber insecurity and misinformation are short-term concerns.
• Quantum technologies offer opportunities but also strategic competition and economic bifurcation.

6. Environmental Risks

• Environmental risks are being deprioritized in the short term, with many declining in ranking and severity.
• Extreme weather events remain a top long-term risk.
• Biodiversity loss, critical change to Earth systems, and non-weather-related natural disasters are also significant in the long-term outlook.

7. Societal Risks

• Societal polarization is a growing concern, especially in the short term.
• Intrastate violence, infectious diseases, and erosion of human rights are key societal risks.
• The "values at war" theme highlights increased digital distrust and socio-environmental progress being undermined.

Methodology Overview

• The Global Risks Perception Survey (GRPS) was conducted with over 1,300 experts across academia, business, government, international organizations, and civil society.
• The survey assessed risk severity over one-, two-, and 10-year time horizons.
• Consequences were evaluated to understand compounding risks.
• Risk governance and outlook were considered to determine approaches to mitigation and future scenarios.
• The Executive Opinion Survey (EOS) provided insights into country-specific risks from over 11,000 business leaders in 116 economies.

Critical Observations

• Multilateralism is in retreat, with declining trust, transparency, and respect for the rule of law.
• Protectionism and strategic industrial policy are signs of a more competitive world.
• Cooperation is still essential for global resilience, economic growth, and innovation.
• The future is not predetermined, but shaped by global decisions and collective action.

Conclusion

The 2026 Global Risks Report underscores the increasing complexity and interconnectedness of global risks. It highlights the dominance of geoeconomic confrontation and technological acceleration, while also pointing to the growing societal and environmental challenges. The report calls for renewed global cooperation, resilience-building, and strategic foresight to navigate the Age of Competition and shape a more stable future.