2020光模块市场预测报告（英文版）_26页_1mb

报告摘要

Optical Networks Summary

Core Content Overview

This document presents a detailed analysis of the optical network hardware market in 1Q20, focusing on regional revenue trends, market share distribution, and the impact of emerging technologies like edge computing and high-speed coherent optics. It also outlines the data center network growth driven by AI, HPC, and cloud adoption, as well as the roadmap for datacom and data center optics.

Regional Network Hardware Revenue

North America (NA) was the only region showing year-over-year (YoY) growth in 1Q20, primarily driven by ICPs (Internet Content Providers) and 5G infrastructure.
Worldwide revenue declined by 3% compared to 1Q19.
Quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) seasonality is a factor in the market performance.
EMEA and NA are expected to be more affected by the second wave of the pandemic in 2Q20, while strong demand is anticipated in 2H20 unless a second wave occurs.

Region	1Q19 (US$M)	4Q19 (US$M)	1Q20 (US$M)	QoQ Change	YoY Change
North America	$739	$1,002	$875	-13%	18%
EMEA	$696	$1,126	$673	-40%	-3%
Asia Pacific	$1,882	$2,358	$1,697	-28%	-10%
CALA	$180	$250	$144	-43%	-20%
Worldwide	$3,497	$4,736	$3,389	-28%	-3%

Market Share

The top 5 companies hold approximately 80% of the worldwide market revenue for high-speed ports in 2019.
Key players include Innolight, Intel, Broadcom, CIG, and II-VI.
The "Others" category includes several companies that may rank in the top 10.

Data Center Networks and Datacom Update

AI and HPC Drive Bandwidth Growth

Cloud adoption is a major driver of data center growth.
North-South bandwidth (backbone DCI and peering) grows at 30-40%.
East-West bandwidth (replication, high availability, AI, HPC) grows at 50-60%.
Edge compute is becoming critical for ICPs to reduce latency and cut through fabrics.

Amazon AWS Architecture

Amazon focuses on software and servers, not optical transport.
Uses 100G LR optics and dark fiber in Availability Zones, with plans to replace with ZR optics.
AWS Outpost and Wavelength are key initiatives to address latency for enterprise and telco clients.

Data Rate and Roadmap for Major ICPs

ICPs are pushing for higher data rates to meet growing bandwidth demands.
Power efficiency is a key concern, with ICPs aiming to match switching capacity with power consumption.
Facebook highlighted the need for improved switching efficiency beyond 25.6 Tb/s.
Smaller DSPs, coherent optics, and co-packaged optics are seen as potential solutions to reduce power consumption.

Year Deployed	Data Rate	Underlying Rate	Switch Fabric
2015–2021	100G	4x25G, 2x50G	3.2Tb–6.8Tb
2019–2024	400G	8x50G, 4x100G	12.8Tb or 25.6Tb
2023–2028	800G/1600G	8x100G, 4x200G	25.6Tb or 51.2Tb

Edge Compute Trends

Edge compute is expanding, driven by cloud economics and new applications requiring low latency and high bandwidth.
Cloud clients are increasing bandwidth usage, leading to the development of new network models.
Edge compute is expected to scale to millions of sites over time.

Leading CSP and ICP Edge Compute Initiatives

AT&T is building edge compute sites, converting central offices into edge locations and partnering with Microsoft.
CenturyLink has deployed over 100 edge compute sites in the US, targeting <5ms latency for key enterprises.
AWS Wavelength launched in 2019, integrating with CSP networks for 5G and gaming applications.
Microsoft aims to cover 80% of global GDP with edge sites, emphasizing latency as the new currency.

Datacom and Data Center Optics

100G modules (CWDM4, SR4, PSM4) are expected to continue growing through 2022, with PSM4 declining.
200G modules (FR4, DR4) are expected to be the highest volume in 2020.
400G modules started to be installed in 2019, but revenue declined due to price pressure and anticipation of network upgrades.
800G modules are expected to be deployed in small quantities in 2023.

High-Speed Coherent Optics

400ZR and 800G are emerging technologies with QSFP-DD, OSFP, and CFP2 form factors.
Coherent optics is moving from fixed-rate 100G to multi-rate coherent modems.
Network bandwidth is forecasted to grow at ≈30% CAGR for high-speed optics (HSO) from 2019 to 2024.

800G Coherent Transport

Ciena has started commercial shipments of 800G coherent transport using WL5e.
Huawei and Infinera are also testing 800G in various applications, including DCI, metro, and subsea.
Nokia is expected to release 800G in 2021 with PSE-V super coherent DSP and Si Photonics integration.

800G Applications and Forecast

800G will be used for DCI (80–120 km), subsea networks, and core network upgrades.
400G anywhere is expected to be a key application.
800G+ HSO is projected to grow significantly in the coming years, with coherent port shipments increasing.

Key Takeaways

North America is the only region showing YoY growth in 1Q20.
Edge compute is becoming a critical component for reducing latency and improving performance.
Coherent optics and pluggable transceivers are key technologies for future network growth.
ICPs are leading the demand for higher data rates and more efficient power usage.
Market consolidation is driving vertical integration in the optical components industry.

Disclaimer

The Omdia research, data, and information are the copyrighted property of Informa Tech.
Information and opinions are subject to change without notice.
No warranties or guarantees are made regarding the accuracy or completeness of the Omdia Materials.

Contact

Americas: E: customersuccess@omdia.com, 08:00 - 18:00 GMT -5
Europe, Middle East & Africa: E: customersuccess@omdia.com, 08:00 - 18:00 GMT
Asia Pacific: E: customersuccess@omdia.com, 08:00 - 18:00 GMT + 8

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