国际清算银行-200亿金融交易能告诉我们新冠肺炎财政转移的影响是什么？（英）-2023.10-39页_1mb

COVID-19 Fiscal Transfer Impact Summary

Background

This paper investigates the effects of COVID-19 fiscal transfers on household spending using transaction-level data from Thailand in 2021. It focuses on direct transfers implemented during the second wave of the pandemic, analyzing recipient behavior through event studies and matched observational analyses. The study targets lower-income workers and examines whether transfers compensate for lockdown-induced spending losses.

Key Findings

• Recipients spent an average of 40% of transfer amounts within six days and 49% cumulatively over three months, surpassing a matched control group.
• Lower-income households exhibited higher spending proportions due to liquidity constraints, with transfers fully offsetting lockdown spending reductions.
• Marginal propensity to consume (MPC) ranged from 10% to 50%, trending higher among lower-income groups, highlighting income-based heterogeneity.
• Outliers and data limitations were addressed, confirming robust results across alternative specifications.

Conclusion

Fiscal transfers proved effective in boosting consumption and aiding recovery, particularly for low-income populations during the pandemic. Policy recommendations emphasize targeting mechanisms to maximize impact in future crises.