2013年-世界发展银行全球_Criss-Crossing_Migration_24页_382kb

Summary of "Criss-Crossing Migration" by Aaditya Mattoo and Arvind Subramanian

Core Content

This working paper by Aaditya Mattoo and Arvind Subramanian from the World Bank examines the evolving nature of international migration, emphasizing that migration should no longer be viewed as a one-way flow from poorer to richer countries. Instead, the paper highlights the increasing importance of two-way migration flows—both from rich to poor and vice versa—as a key aspect of globalization.

Main Points

• Shift in Migration Patterns: The economic crisis has led to a shift in locational incentives for people in industrial countries. With rising costs of living, especially for healthcare, education, and elderly care, many individuals are seeking cheaper and better access to services abroad.

• Economic and Social Implications: Migration from industrial to developing countries is not just an outflow of people but also an opportunity for the industrial countries to benefit through:

  • Cost Savings: By allowing retirees, the infirm, and students to access services in developing countries, industrial countries can reduce domestic costs and improve standards of living.
  • Work Opportunities: Skilled workers in industrial countries are finding new employment opportunities in emerging economies due to the shift in economic dynamism.
  • Innovation and Growth: Inflows of skilled individuals can boost innovation and growth in industrial countries, countering the political resistance to immigration.

• Challenges to Mobility: Current barriers to migration, such as lack of portability of health insurance and non-recognition of foreign qualifications, hinder the free movement of people and need to be addressed.

• Grand Bargain Concept: The paper proposes a grand bargain that could reduce migration barriers globally. This would involve:

  • Industrial countries allowing more migration of the elderly, infirm, and students to developing countries.
  • In return, developing countries allowing more skilled migration to industrial countries.
  • This could create a win-win situation, enhancing the benefits of globalization for all countries.

Key Information

Rich-to-Poor Migration

• Retirees: The cost of living in developing countries is significantly lower than in industrial countries. For example, one dollar buys three times as much in Thailand and twice as much in Costa Rica compared to the US. Retirees can maintain their standard of living by relocating.

• Infirm: Healthcare costs in the US are projected to rise, with major health programs expected to consume nearly 10% of GDP by 2037. Treatment abroad could save billions, such as $1.4 billion annually for certain procedures if 10% of patients opt for overseas care.

• Skilled Unemployed: Many skilled workers in Europe and the US are migrating to developing countries in search of employment. For example, Spain's emigration increased from less than 100,000 in the early 2000s to over 500,000 in 2011. These flows are driven by wage differentials and the need for specialized skills in developing countries.

• Students: Tuition costs in industrial countries are rising, making higher education increasingly unaffordable. Students are now enrolling in institutions in developing countries, such as India and the Caribbean, where costs are lower. A medical degree in the US costs about $60,000 annually, while in India it costs only $15,000. If standardized components of education are outsourced, significant cost savings can be realized.

Poor-to-Rich Migration

• Demographic Shifts: The rich world is aging, while the poor world has a large young population. This creates a demographic imbalance, where industrial countries face challenges in supporting retirees due to a shrinking working-age population.

• Labor Force Benefits: Immigration of young workers can help sustain the labor force and support economic growth. For instance, in the US, an annual immigration of 1.4 million workers could increase GDP growth by 0.6% and boost native welfare by 1.2% of income.

• Skilled Migration: High-skilled individuals, such as doctors, engineers, and professionals, are more likely to migrate from poor to rich countries due to the agglomeration benefits of working in centers of excellence.

Policy Recommendations

• Address Barriers to Mobility: Remove obstacles such as non-recognition of foreign qualifications and lack of portability of health insurance to enable more two-way migration.

• Facilitate Criss-Crossing Globalization: Encourage the fragmentation of the education and healthcare value chains across countries, similar to how goods and services are currently globalized.

• Promote a Grand Bargain: A mutual agreement between rich and poor countries to reduce migration barriers in exchange for benefits from global labor and service markets.

Conclusion

The paper argues that two-way migration flows are not only a natural outcome of globalization but also a strategic opportunity for industrial countries to improve standards of living and economic growth. It calls for a shift in policy focus from one-way migration to a more integrated, criss-crossing model that recognizes the mutual benefits of international mobility.