高盛-中国对新房的需求将保持低位（英文）-2025.6_13页_657kb

China's urban housing demand projections from Goldman Sachs economics show a significant decline due to updated factors from 2021 estimates. The report considers negative investment demand and reduced demolition from government programs.

Demographic demand has halved, averaging only 4.1 million units per year in 2025-2030, down from 9.4 million in the 2010s, driven by population decline, slowing urbanization, and smaller household sizes. Future years see even lower demand, such as 3.5 million units/year in the 2030s.

Demolition demand decreased from the 2010s average of 4.7 million units/year to 2.7 million in the 2020s, shifting focus from demolition to renovation.

Investment demand turned negative, estimated at -1.8 million units/year in 2025-2030 due to high vacancy rates (around 20%) and falling house prices, leading to decreased property holdings.

Overall urban demand for new housing will likely remain below 5 million units/year, down 75% from the 2017 peak of 20 million, reflecting a prolonged low construction period.

Upside risks include geographic mismatches in supply and demand, while downside risks involve faster divestment from property owners or policy changes accelerating urbanization.

The analysis highlights that China's housing market faces strained demand conditions that may persist with existing policies.