2025-05-26-Jefferies-明天_食品配料——健康增长还是摆脱高糖状态_6页_1mb

Summary of TOMORROW: Food Ingredients – Healthy Outgrowth or Coming Off a Sugar High?

Core Content

The document outlines an upcoming event hosted by Jefferies, featuring Paul Graham, President & CEO of the Americas for DöhlerGroup, who will discuss key topics in the food ingredients industry, including operating momentum, supply-chain challenges, and pricing strategies, in the context of evolving tariff environments and changes in customer behavior. The event is scheduled for Wednesday, 28 May 2025, at 3:00 PM BST / 4:00 PM CEST / 10:00 AM EDT.

Main Points

Industry Overview

• European food ingredient companies have reported strong volume growth in 1Q 2025.
• Positive order book progression is expected in 2Q 2025, despite challenges in the staples end-market.
• Reformulation and private-label exposure are seen as growth drivers compared to branded customers.
• Investor skepticism remains regarding stocking and demand sustainability.

Event Details

• Host: Charlie Bentley (European Chemicals Equity Research)
• Topic: Operating momentum, supply-chain challenges, pricing strategies
• Focus: Impact of evolving tariffs and changing customer behavior
• Registration: Required for attendance (link provided)

Relevant Stocks

The following stocks are highlighted in the report:

• KYGA (Kerry Group PLC): Buy
• DSFIR (DSM-Firmenich AG): Buy
• NSISB (Novonesis): Buy
• GIVN (Givaudan SA): Underperform
• IFF (International Flavors & Fragrances Inc): Buy
• SY1 (Symrise AG): Hold

Investment Recommendations

• Buy: Indicates an expected total return of 15% or more within 12 months.
• Hold: Indicates an expected total return of plus or minus 10% within 12 months.
• Underperform: Indicates an expected total return of minus 10% or less within 12 months.
• NR (Not Rated): Ratings are temporarily suspended.
• CS (Coverage Suspended): Coverage has been suspended for the company.
• NC (Not Covered): The company is not currently covered by Jefferies.
• Restricted: Certain communication restrictions apply.
• Monitor: No financial projections or investment opinions are provided.

Valuation Methodology

Jefferies uses a range of methodologies to assign ratings, including:

• Market capitalization
• Maturity
• Growth/value
• Volatility
• Expected total return over the next 12 months
• Price targets based on DCF, EBITDA, EPS, P/E, P/CF, etc.

Jefferies Franchise Picks

• Franchise Picks include Buy rated stocks.
• Selection is based on fundamental analysis, analyst conviction, differentiated analysis, risk/reward ratio, and investment themes.
• These picks are not sector-based and are not intended as a recommended portfolio.

Key Risks and Considerations

• Market Risk: The price and value of financial instruments may fluctuate due to economic, financial, and political factors.
• Currency Risk: Exchange rate changes may affect non-US target prices.
• Conflict of Interest: Jefferies may have investment banking relationships with companies mentioned, which could affect the objectivity of the report.
• Regulatory Risk: Reports may not be suitable for all investors and are not tailored to individual circumstances.
• Forward-Looking Statements: May be affected by risks, uncertainties, and other factors, leading to material differences in actual outcomes.

Legal and Regulatory Disclosures

• Non-US Analysts: Charlie Bentley, Chris Counihan, Marcus Dunford-Castro, and Helena Xu are employed by Jefferies International Limited, a non-US affiliate, and are not registered with FINRA.
• Disclosure Requirements: The report is subject to regulatory requirements in various jurisdictions, including:
  • United States: Prepared by Jefferies LLC, a SEC registered broker-dealer.
  • United Kingdom: Issued by Jefferies International Limited, authorized by the Financial Conduct Authority.
  • Germany: Issued by Jefferies GmbH, regulated by BaFin.
  • Hong Kong: Issued by Jefferies Hong Kong Limited, licensed by the Securities and Futures Commission.
  • Singapore: Issued by Jefferies Singapore Limited, licensed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.
  • India: Issued by Jefferies India Private Limited, licensed by the Securities and Exchange Board of India.
  • Australia: Issued by Jefferies (Australia) Pty Limited, holding an Australian financial services license.
  • Dubai: Issued by Jefferies International Limited, Dubai branch, licensed by the Dubai Financial Services Authority.
• Investment Advice: The report is not tailored to individual investors and is not investment advice. Investors should consult their own financial advisors.
• No Fiduciary Duty: Jefferies does not assume any fiduciary duty in relation to the distribution of these reports.
• Disclaimer: The report is not an offer to sell or buy any security, and past performance does not guarantee future results.

Conclusion

The event provides insights into the current and future performance of the food ingredients sector, with a focus on operating performance, supply chain issues, and pricing dynamics. While European companies show positive momentum, investor caution is advised due to uncertainty in demand and regulatory changes in the US. The report includes investment recommendations and valuation methodologies, but investors are urged to consider their own circumstances and seek professional advice.