2024-03-24-世界银行-适应性社会保护_人力资本和气候变化_确定印尼的政策重点（英）_86页_4mb

报告摘要

Adaptive Social Protection, Human Capital, and Climate Change: Policy Priorities for Indonesia (World Bank, 2023)

Background

Climate change disproportionately affects poor households in Indonesia, increasing risks of poverty, undernourishment, and vulnerability. Social protection systems are critical for building adaptive capacity, especially among the poorest and most vulnerable.
Indonesia has made progress in poverty reduction, with 9.2% of the population living in poverty (2019). However, climate shocks and disasters exacerbate poverty, necessitating stronger social protection systems.

Indonesia’s Social Protection System

Key programs include the flagship Conditional Cash Transfer (CCT) Program Keluarga Harapan (PKH), which reached 10 million households; and social assistance programs like Program Indonesia Pintar (PIP) and Program Sembako.
A social registry (DTKS) covers 29 million households, but exclusion errors and limited coverage in disaster-prone areas remain challenges.
Programs like PKH have positive impacts on education, health, and reduced deforestation, demonstrating potential for climate resilience.

Stress Test Findings: Adapting to Climate Shocks

Indonesia's social protection system operates at an Emerging level (score 3.26), indicating strong foundations but gaps.
Key strengths: Regular programs (73.2% coverage), electronic payment systems, and Early Warning Systems (EWS).
Gaps: Limited post-disaster horizontal coverage (only 61% of the poorest 40%, despite high fault-induced vulnerability); delays in non-beneficiary enrollment; and limited links to economic inclusion.

Policy Recommendations

Expand coverage: Address gaps in social assistance and proactively link these to contributory schemes to expand coverage to new beneficiaries (3.1 million households).
Improve program design: Incorporate climate adaptation, with mechanisms for resilient housing, cash-for-work, and disaster-resilient livelihoods.
Strengthen data/registry: Enhance dynamic updating of the social registry (DTKS) and integrate with disaster databases, prioritizing interoperability and data privacy.
Accelerate horizontal expansion: Leverage technology and simplify enrollment processes for rapid response to new beneficiaries in disaster situations.
Integrate EWS and social protection: Link EWS data to pre-defined triggers for automatic benefit scale-up in emergencies, supported by the Disaster Pooling Fund (PFB).
Enhance gender and vulnerable group inclusion: Prioritize women, people with disabilities, and elderly beneficiaries in crisis response and ensure gender-sensitive messaging.
Adopt an Adaptive Social Protection Roadmap: Strengthen alignment of policies to climate goals, with continuous monitoring and institutional reforms.

Conclusion

Indonesia must triple institutional reforms, improve social registry systems, and scale up financial and technological mechanisms to build adaptive capacity, resilience, and climate mitigation outcomes. Resources: Stress Test Report

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