20171016-东英亚洲证券-舜宇光学科技-02382.HK-Sept_shipments_on_track_7页_416kb

Sunny Optical (2382 HK) Summary

Core Content

Sunny Optical is a leading integrated optical component manufacturer, primarily supplying camera modules to top-tier domestic branded handset makers. The company's recent performance and financial outlook are under review by equity research analysts, with a current rating of BUY and a revised target price of HK$130.

Key Data

• Close Price (as of 13/10/2017): HK$121.60
• Target Price: HK$130.00 (+7%)
• 12 Months High: HK$138.40
• 12 Months Low: HK$32.40
• 3M Avg Daily Vol. (mn): 7.87
• Issue Share (mn): 1,097.00
• Market Cap (HK$mn): 133,724.30
• Fiscal Year: 12/2016
• Major Shareholder: WANG WENJIAN (38.54%)

Financial Highlights

9M17 Shipments

• HLS (Handset Lens Sets): Up 78% yoy to 438mn pcs
• VLS (Vehicle Lens Sets): Up 46% yoy to 23.9mn pcs
• HCM (Handset Camera Modules): Up 29% yoy to 239mn pcs

Revenue Growth

• FY17E Revenue: RMB22,800.4mn
• FY18E Revenue: RMB31,271.4mn (up 37.2% yoy)
• FY19E Revenue: RMB35,874.5mn (up 14.7% yoy)

Net Profit

• FY17E Net Profit: RMB2,419.9mn
• FY18E Net Profit: RMB3,946.6mn (up 63.1% yoy)
• FY19E Net Profit: RMB5,210.1mn (up 32.0% yoy)

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

• FY17E Diluted EPS: HK$2.647
• FY18E Diluted EPS: HK$4.317 (up 63.1% yoy)
• FY19E Diluted EPS: HK$5.699 (up 32.0% yoy)

Gross Margin

• FY17E Gross Margin: 19.2%
• FY18E Gross Margin: 21.2% (up 0.2ppt)
• FY19E Gross Margin: 22.6% (up 0.1ppt)

EPS Growth

• FY18E EPS Growth: 9.8%
• FY19E EPS Growth: 11.9%

Main Points

• Sept Shipments: In line with expectations, with HLS/VLS/HCM up 66.5%/29.3%/5% yoy.
• 9M17 Shipments: Better than management's guided growth targets.
• Earnings Estimate Revision: Revised up FY18E earnings estimate by 9.8% to RMB3.9bn due to better adoption of dual cam modules.
• Dual Cam Penetration: Revised up from 30%/35% to 40%/50% for FY18E/FY19E.
• Revenue Forecast: Revised up FY18E/FY19E revenue by 8.5%/11.9% to RMB31.2bn/RMB35.9bn.
• Gross Margin: Revised up FY18E/FY19E GPM by 0.2ppt/0.1ppt to 21.2%/22.6%.
• Target Price: Revised to HK$130 based on a 30x FY18E PE.

Key Assumptions and Forecasts

Risks

• Shipment growth may be lower than expected.
• Optoelectronic margin may be lower than expected.
• ASP (Average Selling Price) may be lower than expected.

Peer Group Comparison

Financial Summary

Income Statement (RMB mn)

Cash Flow (RMB mn)

Ratios

Historical Recommendations and Target Price