20170816-大华继显-Regional_Norning_Notes_33页_1mb

报告摘要

Regional Morning Notes Summary

Core Content Overview

This document provides a summary of company results and market insights for the week of Wednesday, 16 August 2017, focusing on key markets including China, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand, along with key indices and stock recommendations. It highlights performance metrics, financial forecasts, and strategic outlooks for selected companies, particularly Anta Sports (2020 HK) and Nexteer Automotive Group (1316 HK), and outlines corporate events and valuation metrics for the region.

Main Points by Country

China

Anta Sports (2020 HK):
- 1H17 results exceeded both consensus and market expectations, driven by gross margin expansion.
- Sales growth of 19.2% yoy, with Anta brands up 10%+ and non-Anta brands (mainly FILA) up 50%+.
- E-commerce channel contributed ~60% yoy sales surge, ~16% of total sales.
- Gross margin increased 2.7ppt to 50.6%, EBIT margin up 1.7ppt to 25.9%, and Net margin up 1.4ppt to 19.8%.
- Net cash position at Rmb10.3b, supporting multi-brand expansion.
- Maintain BUY with a target price of HK$35.00, reflecting ~20.5% upside.
Nexteer Automotive Group (1316 HK):
- 1H17 core net profit up 11% yoy to US$180m, beating expectations.
- Revenue growth slowed to 2.6% yoy, missing expectations.
- Margin expansion was a key driver, with EBITDA margin up to 16.6% and net margin up to 9.1%.
- Maintain SELL with a target price of HK$10.00, ~16.0% downside.
- Revenue is expected to be dragged by the weak US auto market.
- Order backlog decreased in 2Q17, and US auto sales decline is a major concern.

Indonesia

Bumi Serpong Damai (BSDE IJ):
- 1H17 performance was strong, but weak pre-sales still pose a challenge.
- Maintain BUY with a target price of Rp2,150, ~17.5% upside.

Malaysia

Kuala Lumpur Kepong (KLKM/KHOLD):
- 3QFY17 core net profit RM197m (-27.3% qoq, -12.6% yoy), within expectations.
- Anticipate a stronger 4QFY17 due to higher production.

Singapore

Bumitama Agri (BAL SP):
- Expected to show stronger results in 2H17 due to yield recovery and new mature areas, along with resumption of biodiesel deliveries.
- Maintain BUY with a target price of S$1.03, ~20.9% upside.

Thailand

Charoen Pokphand Foods (CPF TB):
- 2Q17 results slightly below expectations.
CH Karnchang (CK TB):
- Good performance overshadowed by the absence of huge dam works from last year.
Star Petroleum Refining (SPRC TB):
- Results disappoint, but likely to have bottomed out.
- Upgrade to BUY.
Pruksa Holding (PSH TB):
- Expected to perform better in 2H17.

Key Indices Overview

Index	Prev Close	1D %	1W %	1M %	YTD %
DJIA	21999.0	0.0	-0.4	1.7	11.3
S&P 500	2464.6	-0.0	-0.4	0.2	10.1
FTSE 100	7383.9	0.4	-2.1	0.1	3.4
AS30	5804.0	0.4	0.1	-0.1	1.5
CSI 300	3706.1	0.3	-0.7	0.1	12.0
FSSTI	3294.9	-0.4	-0.8	0.2	14.4
HSCEI	10738.0	0.3	-3.1	0.1	14.3
HSI	27175.0	-0.3	-2.4	3.0	23.5
JCI	5835.0	0.6	0.4	0.1	10.2
KLCI	1772.4	0.1	-0.5	1.0	8.0
KOSPI	2334.2	0.6	-2.7	-3.3	15.2
Nikkei 225	19753.3	1.1	-1.5	-1.8	3.3
SET	1567.2	0.4	-0.4	-0.7	1.6
TWSE	10311.2	0.8	-2.4	-1.3	11.4
BDI	1155	1.5	11.3	28.3	20.2
CPO (RM/ml)	2642	0.7	2.3	1.2	-17.4
Brent Crude	51	0.1	-2.6	3.9	-10.6

Top Picks (BUY)

Company	Ticker	Current Price	Target Price	Upside (%)
Alibaba	BABA US	$157.75	$173.00	9.7
Beijing Ent. Water	371 HK	HK$6.46	HK$7.60	17.6
Ace Hardware	ACES IJ	Rp1,075.00	Rp1,300.00	20.9
Waskita Karya	WSKT IJ	Rp2,360.00	Rp3,350.00	41.9
Ekovest	EKO MK	Bt1.10	Bt1.55	40.9
OCBC	OCBC SP	S$11.21	S$13.38	19.4
Siam Cement	SCC TB	Bt490.00	Bt600.00	22.4

Top Picks (SELL)

Company	Ticker	Current Price	Target Price	Upside (%)
Great Wall Motor	2333 HK	HK$10.14	HK$5.50	-45.8
Sapura Energy	SAPE MK	M$1.46	M$1.38	-5.5

Key Assumptions

Region	2016 GDP % yoy	2017F GDP % yoy	2018F GDP % yoy
US	1.6	2.5	2.5
Euro Zone	1.7	1.8	1.6
Japan	1.0	0.9	1.2
Singapore	2.0	2.4	2.5
Malaysia	4.2	5.0	4.9
Thailand	3.2	3.3	3.3
Indonesia	5.0	5.2	5.5
Hong Kong	1.9	2.0	2.0
China	6.7	6.6	6.3
Brent (Avg)	$45	$55	$58
CPO (RM/mt)	2,653	2,600	2,400

Corporate Events

Event Name	Venue	Dates
Analyst Marketing on Greater China Strategy	Kuala Lumpur	16 Aug - 17 Aug
Roadshow with Star Petroleum Refining	Hong Kong	21 Aug
Analyst Presentation on Malaysia Technology Sector	Taipei	22 Aug - 23 Aug
Roadshow with Logan Property Holdings	Taipei	23 Aug - 24 Aug
Roadshow with China TCM Holdings	Hong Kong	24 Aug
Roadshow with China TCM Holdings	Shanghai	28 Aug
Roadshow with Globetronics Technology	Taipei	24 Aug - 25 Aug
Roadshow with Meidong Auto Holdings	Hong Kong	25 Aug - 28 Aug
Roadshow with Dah Chong Hong	Singapore	28 Aug - 29 Aug
Roadshow with Sihuan Pharmaceutical	Taipei	1 Sep
Roadshow with Anta Sports Products Ltd	Shanghai	5 Sep
Analyst Marketing on 2H17	Singapore	5 Sep - 6 Sep
Malaysia Outlook	-	-
Roadshow with Top Glove Corporation	US/Canada	5 Sep - 12 Sep
Roadshow with Health Management Int'l	Kuala Lumpur	6 Sep
Roadshow with Globetronics Technology	Hong Kong	12 Sep
Asian Gems Conference 2017	Singapore	10 Oct - 11 Oct

Valuation and Earnings Forecast

Metric	2017F	2018F	2019F
Net turnover (Rmbm)	16,077	19,001	22,314
EBITDA (Rmbm)	4,240	5,032	5,986
Operating profit (Rmbm)	4,058	4,802	5,717
Net profit (Rmbm)	2,972	3,585	4,233
EPS (fen)	114.6	138.2	163.2
PE (x)	21.7	18.0	15.2
P/B (x)	4.7	4.3	4.0
EV/EBITDA (x)	13.8	11.6	9.8
Net margin (%)	18.5	18.9	19.0
Debt to equity (%)	6.8	6.3	5.8

Conclusion

Anta Sports is highlighted as a top pick, with strong 1H17 performance and a positive outlook for 2H17 due to multi-brand and omni-channel strategies.
Nexteer Automotive Group shows improved profitability but faces revenue challenges due to weakening US auto sales.
The document outlines key corporate events and market outlooks, emphasizing the importance of regional economic growth and commodity trends.
Valuation metrics are provided for all listed companies, with BUY and SELL recommendations based on financial performance and market conditions.