What's Hot Today Summary
Core Content
This document provides an overview of the current market trends and updates in the property sector, along with broader market data and research insights. It includes policy changes, sales performance, stock valuations, and economic calendars for China, Hong Kong, and the US.
Key Policy Updates
- Suzhou: Shortened the reselling ban period for new homes from three to two years and removed the ban for pre-owned homes.
- Property Sales: The total area of new home sales in 23 major Chinese cities dropped by 33% year-over-year during the five-day national holiday.
Market Sentiment and Recovery Outlook
- The housing market sentiment is expected to bottom out but recovery is not imminent and will be slow.
- Key recovery factors include:
- Consumer confidence returning
- Distressed developers improving liquidity
- Removal of lockdown measures
- Recommendation: Investors should focus on defensive players to benefit from potential policy supports.
Key Company Performance
- Yuexiu Property (123 HK) is highlighted as a top pick in the real estate sector due to:
- Strong sales performance in April, up 40% year-over-year and 83% month-over-month compared to peers
- Expansion of TOD projects to Hangzhou, increasing its total land bank from 3.76 million sqm in FY21 to 4.4 million sqm currently
- Gaining market share, from ~1.6% in Q1 2021 to ~2% in Q1 2022
- Stock Valuation:
- Trading at 4.7x P/E (3 years average ~5.2x)
- 0.4x PB (3 years average ~0.48x)
- Dividend yield of 8.4%, which is attractive
- Stock price up 13% year-to-date, outperforming peers (average of -26%)
Market Data Overview
Indices Performance
| Index |
Close |
1D % |
YTD % |
| HSI |
19,633 |
-1.8% |
-16.1% |
| HSCEI |
6,658 |
-2.2% |
-19.2% |
| HSCCI |
3,740 |
-0.2% |
-4.1% |
| CSI300 |
3,919 |
1.1% |
-20.7% |
| Shanghai A |
3,182 |
1.1% |
0.6% |
| Shanghai B |
287 |
-0.7% |
0.6% |
| Shenzhen A |
1,981 |
1.5% |
-25.1% |
| Shenzhen B |
1,029 |
-0.2% |
-12.3% |
Commodities
| Commodity |
Close |
1D % |
YTD % |
| GOLD |
1,838 |
-0.9% |
0.3% |
| STEEL |
1,645 |
-4.9% |
4.1% |
| SILVER |
21 |
-2.4% |
-8.7% |
| CRUDE OIL |
99 |
11.0% |
32.1% |
| COPPER |
9,228 |
-2.0% |
-5.1% |
| ALUMINUM |
2,753 |
-3.1% |
-1.9% |
| PLATINUM |
968 |
1.2% |
-0.1% |
| ZINC |
3,597 |
-4.6% |
1.8% |
| WHEAT |
1,083 |
-1.3% |
40.5% |
| CORN |
775 |
0.4% |
31.0% |
| SUGAR |
N/A |
N/A |
-5.8% |
| SOYBEAN |
1,592 |
0.4% |
17.5% |
| PVC |
N/A |
N/A |
-2.4% |
| CRB |
297 |
-4.6% |
3.0% |
| BDI |
27.7% |
- |
- |
Exchange Rates
| Currency |
USD |
HKD |
EUR |
JPY |
CHF |
RMB |
| USD |
- |
7.850 |
0.950 |
130.450 |
0.996 |
6.735 |
| HKD |
0.127 |
- |
0.121 |
16.618 |
12.682 |
0.858 |
| EUR |
1.053 |
8.264 |
- |
137.340 |
0.954 |
7.097 |
| JPY |
0.008 |
6.017 |
0.728 |
- |
0.763 |
0.052 |
| CHF |
1.005 |
7.885 |
0.954 |
131.004 |
- |
0.148 |
| RMB |
0.148 |
1.166 |
0.141 |
19.349 |
0.148 |
- |
Economic Calendars
US Economic Calendar
| Indicator |
Frequency |
Expected Release Date |
| CPI |
MoM |
11-May-22 |
| Initial Jobless Claims |
WoW |
12-May-22 |
| PPI |
MoM |
12-May-22 |
| Business Inventories |
MoM |
17-May-22 |
| Retail Sales |
MoM |
17-May-22 |
| Industrial Production |
MoM |
17-May-22 |
| Housing Starts / Building Permits |
MoM |
18-May-22 |
| Existing Home Sales |
MoM |
19-May-22 |
| New Home Sales |
MoM |
24-May-22 |
| Durable Goods Orders |
MoM |
25-May-22 |
| GDP |
QoQ |
26-May-22 |
China Economic Calendar
| Indicator |
Frequency |
Expected Release Date |
| Money Supply - M2 |
MoM |
11-May-22 |
| PPI |
MoM |
11-May-22 |
| CPI |
MoM |
11-May-22 |
| Industrial Production |
MoM |
16-May-22 |
| Retail Sales |
MoM |
16-May-22 |
| PMI Manufacturing |
MoM |
31-May-22 |
| Foreign Exchange Reserves |
QoQ |
7-Jun-22 |
| Trade Balance |
MoM |
9-Jun-22 |
| GDP |
YoY |
15-Jul-22 |
Hong Kong Economic Calendar
| Indicator |
Frequency |
Expected Release Date |
| GDP |
QoQ |
13-May-22 |
| Unemployment Rate |
MoM |
19-May-22 |
| CPI |
MoM |
23-May-22 |
| Trade Balance |
MoM |
26-May-22 |
| Money Supply - M2 |
MoM |
31-May-22 |
| Retail Sales |
MoM |
1-Jun-22 |
| PMI |
MoM |
6-Jun-22 |
| Foreign Currency Reserve |
MoM |
7-Jun-22 |
| Producer Prices Index |
QoQ |
14-Jun-22 |
| Industrial Production |
QoQ |
14-Jun-22 |
| Composite Interest Rate |
MoM |
- |
Research Team
| Analyst |
Sector Coverage |
| Jade Wang |
TMT |
| Katherine Dai |
Software, TMT |
| Ken Li |
Real estate, property management |
| Eason Cui |
Automobile, energy |
Disclaimer
- This document is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy or subscribe for any securities.
- The securities referred to in this document may not be eligible for sale in certain jurisdictions.
- No representation or warranty is made regarding the accuracy or correctness of the information.
- The report is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as authoritative.
- KFS may act as a market maker or have financial relationships with the issuers discussed.
- All opinions and estimates are subject to change without notice.
