2021-12-27-英国际战略研究所-改变联盟结构（英）_51页_5mb

报告摘要

Changing Alliance Structures: Key Findings

Global Trend: Alliance structures are shifting toward minilateralism (small, purpose-driven partnerships) as a response to challenges from rising powers like China and Russia, and limitations in large alliances. This trend is observed across regions: Asia-Pacific, Middle East, and Europe.
Drivers of Minilateralism:
- Rising assertiveness of "challenger states" (China, Russia, Iran, Turkey) beyond existing alliance containment.
- Strategic competition from Sino-American rivalry, compelling allies to form new coalitions (e.g., Quad, AUKUS).
- Ineffectiveness of traditional multilateral institutions, leaving gaps in addressing diverse security challenges.
- Growing emphasis on geo-economic and emerging tech cooperation, requiring flexible mechanisms.
Regional Manifestations:
- Asia-Pacific: US-led “hub-and-spoke” alliances remain central, but groups like the Quad and AUKUS are accelerating. China counters through BRI diplomacy and alternative institutions (SCO). Southeast Asia navigates between balancing powers and ASEAN centrality.
- Middle East: New alignments like the Saudi-UAE bloc and Eastern Mediterranean coalition target Iran and Turkey. Minilateralism creates fragmentation amid local conflicts.
- Europe: NATO remains vital for collective defense, but resilience faces challenges from Trump-era retrenchment and potential China-US competition. France, Germany, UK experiment with minilateralism to fill security gaps.
Minilateral Opportunities & Risks:
- Offers agility in response to crises but faces coordination challenges and exclusionary dynamics (e.g., AUKUS provoked backlash).
- Lends agency to smaller states but risks exacerbating rivalries (e.g., Eastern Mediterranean tensions).
- May marginalize inclusive multilateralism if major powers rely on selective partnerships.
Strategic Calamity Avoidance:
- Leading European capitals must balance NATO-EU institutional roles with targeted minilateral efforts.
- Requires abandoning delusions of autonomy or relying solely on allies (e.g., Germany may leverage its geographical strengths in regional minilaterals).
- Urgent need for credible defense investments and pragmatic diplomatic engagement amid multipolar competition.