20230710-国元证券-银轮股份-002126.SZ-公司点评报告_三大业务线齐增长_盈利端持续向上_3页_1mb

Company Review: Yulun Shares (002126) released a strong performance outlook for the first half of 2023, with revenue projected between 500 billion and 530 billion yuan, representing a 293% to 371% year-over-year increase. Profit figures also surged, with net profit expected between 28 billion and 30 billion yuan, for a 1129% to 1281% rise, and adjusted net profit of 24 billion to 25.6 billion yuan, up 1580% to 1752%. In Q2 specifically, revenue was forecast at 259.5 billion yuan (432% YoY, 16% QoQ), net profit at 150 billion yuan (948% YoY), though adjusted net profit saw a slight QoQ decline in环比.

Growth Drivers: The company benefited from robust new order wins, estimated at over 14 billion yuan annualized capacity, from key customers like North American auto makers and domestic brands, spanning areas such as air conditioning units and cooling modules. Business lines, including商用车 (commercial vehicles), industrial, and civilian sectors, showed synchronized growth, with商用车 export markets recovering.

Profitability Enhancement: Net profit margins improved significantly, reaching 528% to 600%, which addressed concerns about cost pressures from automotive competitors. Cost control measures, including efficiency improvements and structural changes, drove sustained profitability gains.

Investment Recommendation: Maintain a "buy" rating, with target prices at 1711 yuan (current price) to 2284 yuan for a 6-month horizon. Forecasted revenue for 2023-2025 ranges from 1090 billion yuan for 2023 to 16226 billion yuan for 2025, supported by expanding thermal management and industrial business. Valuation metrics showed PE multiples per share declining, supporting the buy view.

Risks: Potential slowdown in automotive or new energy vehicle industries, competitive pressures, material cost increases, and currency fluctuations could impact performance.