2012年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Benin_Third_Review_Under_the_Extended_Credit_Facility_Arrangement_79页_1mb

Summary of the Third Review Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement for Benin (April 2012)

Core Content

The third review under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) Arrangement for Benin, conducted in January–March 2012, assessed the country's economic performance and policy implementation against the program's objectives. The review highlighted both achievements and challenges, particularly in the context of external shocks and ongoing structural reforms.

Main Views and Key Information

Economic Outlook and Spillover Effects

• Political Context: The re-election of the President and the regained parliamentary majority created an opportunity for reforms. However, economic growth in 2012 is expected to be adversely affected by external spillovers.
• Growth and Inflation: Real GDP growth in 2011 was around 3%, while it is projected to rise to 3.5% in 2012 as agriculture recovers from 2010 flooding and port operations normalize. Inflation, however, is expected to sharply increase to 7% in 2012 due to Nigeria's fuel subsidy reduction.
• Current Account: The external current account deficit widened in 2011 but is projected to narrow in 2012, reaching about 6% of GDP, aided by improved cotton exports and non-traditional exports.

Program Performance

• Performance Criteria: All performance criteria and most quantitative targets were met by end-September 2011, and similar results were achieved by end-December.
• Revenue and Expenditure: Despite initial resistance to reforms, customs revenue started to recover by the end of 2011. The authorities managed to keep the wage bill below target through administrative savings and delayed recruitment.
• Missed Targets: The indicative targets on total revenue and priority social expenditure were not met in both September and December 2011, due to technical and administrative challenges.

Structural Reforms

• Customs Reforms: Implemented at the Port of Cotonou, including a one-stop window, enhanced import valuation, and alignment with international practices. However, the initial resistance led to a drop in customs revenue and increased congestion.
• Wage Agreement: A 25% nominal increase in civil servant salaries was agreed on August 5, 2011, with the implementation spread over four years. The agreement was seen as a tool to reduce the risk of an unsustainable wage bill.
• Delays in Reforms: Progress on computerization of customs and tax departments, pension reform, and the generalization of taxpayer identification numbers has been slow. The World Bank is supporting civil service reform.

Financial System

• Stability and Risks: The financial system remains broadly stable, but some small banks are in a fragile position. Non-performing loans account for 17% of total loans, and three banks failed to meet minimum capital requirements.
• Supervision Needs: The IMF emphasized the need for stronger supervision, including on-site inspections and improved risk management practices, to ensure compliance with regional norms.

Risks to the Program

• External Shocks: The reduction of fuel subsidies in Nigeria and the European financial crisis are expected to hinder growth and increase inflation.
• Fiscal Sustainability: Continued underperformance of customs revenue and delays in structural reforms pose risks to achieving fiscal targets and maintaining program sustainability.

Staff Appraisal

• Positive Aspects: The program has been broadly satisfactory, with satisfactory performance on most criteria and a commitment from the authorities to continue reforms.
• Recommendations: The IMF recommended a progressive return to transactional customs valuation, streamlining of tax exemptions, and intensified supervision of the financial sector.

Policy Discussions

• Fiscal Policy: The focus was on restoring customs revenue, containing the wage bill, and unbridling priority social spending.
• Structural Reforms: Accelerating reforms in customs, tax, and civil service was emphasized to support long-term fiscal sustainability and growth.
• Financial Sector: Strengthening supervision and addressing non-performing loans were identified as critical steps to reduce vulnerability.

Conclusion

The Benin authorities demonstrated commitment to the ECF program, with progress made in fiscal reforms and some areas of structural reform. However, challenges remain in restoring customs revenue, addressing delays in reform implementation, and managing inflationary pressures. Continued cooperation and implementation are essential to ensure the program's success.