2021-07-31-国际战略研究中心-伊拉克_美国和_新_中东（英）_22页_1mb

Iraq, the United States, and Strategic Partnership

This report analyzes the strategic relationship between the United States and Iraq, focusing on U.S. withdrawal of combat forces, governance issues, military and economic challenges, and broader Middle East dynamics. It emphasizes the need for a new strategic partnership based on an independent Iraq to protect U.S. interests and promote stability.

Key Strategic Importance of Iraq

• Iraq has world's fifth-largest oil reserves (145 billion barrels), is strategically located between Iran, Syria, and Turkey, and is vital for U.S. energy security and regional influence. It also faces threats from Iran, which could disrupt Gulf stability and increase risks to Israel and U.S. allies.

U.S. Withdrawal and Strategic Options

• The U.S. planned to withdraw combat forces by December 31, 2021, due to internal opposition and events like the killing of Soleimani, not because of full ISIS defeat or resolved threats from Iran, Syria, or Turkey.
• Three strategic options were outlined: full partnership for an independent Iraq, failure to form a partnership risking Iraq's instability, or U.S. withdrawal leading to Iranian dominance or Iraq's partition.

Governance Challenges

• Iraq faces severe corruption, factionalism, and weak institutions, ranked low by Transparency International and the World Bank. Elections have not brought unity, with protests and political crises undermining governance. Aid should be conditional on transparent reforms.

Military Challenges

• Iraqi forces are ineffective in fighting remnants of ISIS and deterring Iran due to poor training, equipment maintenance, intelligence gaps, and coordination issues. U.S. support includes training and advising, transitioning to a non-combat role post-withdrawal, but cuts in funding for FY2022 reduce U.S. involvement.

Economic Challenges

• Iraq suffers from a major economic crisis, including high youth unemployment, inflation, and dependence on oil. Widespread corruption stifles investment, and the economy is vulnerable to oil price fluctuations. Reforms are needed for sustainable development.

Recommendations for U.S. Aid

• Focus aid on a strong independent Iraq to deter external threats. Require transparent and effective use of funds, contingent on Iraqi progress. Support a coalition-based approach and multi-donor involvement to enhance legitimacy.

Broader Regional Context

• Iraq is part of wider Middle East instability, driven by Iran's influence, which dominates Shi'ite areas and exports extremism. U.S. must address this through long-term partnerships, as short-term fixes fail to solve underlying issues.

The report concludes that no single actor can save Iraq; success requires genuine reform and cooperation to prevent further decline and extremism.