美联储-美国的大型企业与新技术发展轨迹（英）-2025_55页_2mb

Subject: Analysis: Mega Firms' Role in Novel Patent Creation and Technological Trajectories

Key Findings

1. Trend in Novel Patents: The share of novel patents (new combinations of technological components) by mega firms (top 50 US firms by sales) followed a U-shaped trend between 1980 and 2016. It declined initially from ~16% (1980) to ~9% (2001) before rebounding strongly to ~18% (2016). This recovery is attributed to both an increase in mega firms' total patent applications and a higher probability of these firms applying for novel patents, even after controlling for firm size and total patent activity.

2. Technological Impact: Novel patents from mega firms generated more follow-on patents (patents using the same new technology) and were more likely to be "hits" (leading further development) after 2001 than those from non-mega firms. The share of breakthrough patents (high novelty + high impact) controlled by mega firms also significantly increased since the early 2000s.

3. Knowledge Diffusion: Despite broader economic concerns about mega firms stifling innovation and limiting knowledge spillovers, the analysis finds no evidence of a slowdown in knowledge diffusion (the dissemination of follow-on patents) stemming from mega firm novel patents after 2001. The self-follow-on rate for mega firms remained stable over time.

4. Driving Factors:

   • Cash Holdings: Cash holdings have increased disproportionately for mega firms since the early 2000s compared to non-mega firms. This readily available capital likely funds risky, experimental R&D necessary for novel innovation.
   • Technological Scope: The average technological scope (diversity) of inventor teams at mega firms significantly increased since the early 2000s, contributing to their rise in novel patenting power.

Summary

While rising concerns about market power and reduced business dynamism focus on certain aspects of mega firm activity, this analysis highlights their significant and growing role in generating novel technological combinations and shaping innovation trajectories over recent decades. This stems primarily from increases in cash holdings and the technological scope of their R&D efforts, leading to greater positive externalities through follow-on innovation, despite questions about overall R&D efficiency.