2025年全球甲烷状况报告_147页_6mb

Global Methane Status Report 2025 Summary

Current Status of Methane Emissions

• Global anthropogenic methane emissions reached approximately 352 Mt in 2020, projected to rise to 369 Mt by 2030 (5% increase) under current legislation, driven by growth in agriculture and waste sectors.
• Agriculture (42% of emissions) and energy (38%) are primary sources, while waste accounts for 20%. Non-G20+ regions are expected to experience the fastest growth.
• Current NDCs and MAPs commitments could reduce emissions by up to 8% below 2020 levels by 2030, representing the largest recorded decline in methane history, but still insufficient to meet the GMP target of a 30% reduction.

Mitigation Potential

• Full implementation of Maximum Technically Feasible Reductions (MTFR) could reduce emissions by 32% below 2020 levels by 2030, delivering substantial benefits:
  • Avoid 180,000 premature deaths, 0.2°C of warming, and $330 billion in annual benefits by 2030.
  • Energy sector offers the largest reduction potential (78% of technical potential), with low-cost measures available.
  • Waste sector requires early investment for long-term benefits, with potential for >50 Mt reduction by 2050.
• Low-cost mitigation is possible at scale in energy and waste, with minimal net costs in agriculture.

Measurement Challenges

• Satellite and ground-based measurements reveal significant underreporting in the fossil fuel sector (e.g., Mexico's emissions were found to be 10x higher than reported).
• 80% of global abatement potential is available at low cost (<$1,000 per tonne), but robust MRV systems are needed to track progress.
• Strengthening measurement tools and data transparency is critical for effective policy enforcement.

Finance Needs

• Estimated annual investment for full MTFR implementation in 2030 is $127 billion.
• Current methane finance is ~$13.7 billion (CPI data), insufficient to close the investment gap. Development finance institutions (DFIs) and private sector actors must scale support.
• Redirecting a small fraction of harmful subsidies ($635+ billion/year) could fund methane mitigation.

Conclusion

• Immediate, ambitious action is required to meet the GMP target. Integration of methane reduction with broader climate strategies (decarbonization, waste management) is essential.
• Enhanced measurement, financing, and policy implementation are key to unlocking the full benefits of methane mitigation, including health, economic, and climate co-benefits.