20180611-瑞士信贷_香港_-FX_Daily__Today_s_highlights_7页_1mb

Credit Suisse FX Daily Technical Analysis Summary (11 June 2018)

Core Content Overview

This report provides a technical analysis of several major foreign exchange pairs, focusing on key resistance and support levels, recent price action, and the overall market bias. It is authored by the Investment Strategy Department of Credit Suisse and not by the Research Department, indicating that views may differ materially.

Key FX Pairs Analysis

NOK/USD (BoE)

• Chart of the Day: NOK/USD is threatening to break higher from its sideways range.
• Resistance: 90.20 (August high)
• Support: 88.69
• Bias: Short-term bias is higher, with a break above 88.69 needed to confirm the trend change.
• Observation: The pair has formed a bearish "outside day" and is currently capped below the downtrend from 2016.

USDCAD

• Price Action: Formed a bearish "outside day" after staying capped below the downtrend from 2016 at 1.3033.
• Resistance: 1.3033/40**, 1.3126/32**, 1.3263
• Support: 1.2861/58*, 1.2828/12*, 1.2733/21**
• Bias: Short-term bias is lower, with a clear break above 1.3033/40 needed to reassert an upside bias.
• Observation: The market is in a consolidation phase, with the 200-day average acting as a key support level.

USD/JPY

• Price Action: Stays capped below its 200-day average at 110.20.
• Resistance: 110.20/27*, 111.36/40***, 111.70
• Support: 109.37, 108.80/66*, 108.39, 107.63
• Bias: Neutral, with the market in a topping process.
• Observation: A clear break below 109.37 could confirm a minor top, while a close above 110.20 would reassert an upside bias.

EUR/USD

• Price Action: Holds below resistance at 1.1830/38, but bias remains higher.
• Resistance: 1.1910**, 1.1938/39*, 1.2032/40*
• Support: 1.1753, 1.1727, 1.1653*, 1.1617, 1.1595/90*
• Bias: Short-term bias is higher, with a break above 1.1830/38 expected to lead to a larger consolidative phase.
• Observation: The daily MACD shows a "buy" signal, indicating potential for a short-term rebound.

EUR/JPY

• Price Action: Held retracement support at 128.12, with a daily MACD "buy" signal in place.
• Resistance: 130.55**, 131.35/38**, 132.55/58**
• Support: 128.12/11*, 127.23/20*, 126.81/78*, 125.76/60
• Bias: Neutral, with resistance at 131.38 expected to cap any upside movement.
• Observation: The pair is in a consolidation phase, with the 55-day average acting as a key support.

AUD/USD

• Price Action: Set a minor top below .7594/91 after rejection from key resistance at .7665/89.
• Resistance: .7689, .7748**, .7814**, .7859*
• Support: .7556, .7476*, .7447*, .7369/68*
• Bias: Short-term bias is lower, with a break below .7476 indicating a deeper setback.
• Observation: The 200-day average at .7748 is a key level to watch for potential consolidation.

NZD/USD

• Price Action: Stays capped below key resistance at .7053/59.
• Resistance: .7053/59*, .7105/15*, .7121/23**, .7159
• Support: .6998/90*, .6882, .6850**, .6763/61*
• Bias: Neutral, with a break below .6850 indicating a potential retest of more important support.
• Observation: The market is in a consolidation phase, with the 55-day average acting as a key support.

GBP/USD

• Price Action: Stays capped below resistance at 1.3481/92.
• Resistance: 1.3481/92*, 1.3528/38, 1.3583
• Support: 1.3254*, 1.3204*, 1.3186/83**
• Bias: Tactically bullish, with support at 1.3254 expected to hold.
• Observation: The pair is in a corrective phase, with the 23.6% retracement of the April fall acting as a key resistance level.

EUR/GBP

• Price Action: Risks leaning lower on balance, with resistance at .8832/46.
• Resistance: .8832/46**, .8883*, .8957/69**, .8983*
• Support: .8682/80**, .8620*, .8527/24*
• Bias: Neutral, with support at .8682/80 expected to hold.
• Observation: The market is in a consolidation phase, with the 55-day average acting as a key support.

Summary of Key Levels and Biases

Additional Notes

• The report highlights that all levels are ranked by importance using stars (*, **, ***).
• It emphasizes that the views expressed are those of the Investment Strategy Department and may differ from the Research Department.
• The material is for informational purposes only and not intended as investment advice or a recommendation.
• It is marketing material and may not be reproduced without written permission.