2025-05-22-Jefferies-6月11日周三全球纸浆专家展望电话会议_7页_266kb

Summary of Equity Research Report: Paper & Packaging, May 22, 2025

Key Event

• Global Pulp Expert Outlook Call: Scheduled for June 11, 2025, at 3pm UK (10am ET). Presented by Patrick Cavanagh, senior economist from Fastmarkets RISI.
• Topics Discussed: Global pulp market outlook through 2H25, insights from Vancouver pulp week, key trends impacting pulp markets, industry supply-demand dynamics, and views on China.
• Relevance: Targeted for global pulp & paper investors, including European companies like UPM, Stora Enso, and SCA, and North American companies like IP and ESSITY.

Market Insights

• Pulp Prices: Demand influenced by US-China trade relations; Chinese resale pulp prices near cost support levels. Most investors are cautious due to uncertainties.
• Risks: Upward price movement remains contested; key risks include macroeconomic factors, supply-demand imbalances, pulp pricing volatility, currency fluctuations, and transformational projects.

Company Valuation and Investment Recommendations

• UPM-Kymmene Corporation: Price target based on SOTP EV/EBITDA multiples; key risks highlighted are pulp packaging demand, supply/demand dynamics, pricing, FX, and project execution. Recent ratings show fluctuations, with a Buy recommendation as of May 22, 2025.
• Overall Outlook: Analysts recommend Buy, Hold, or Underperform based on fundamental analysis; high volatility in pulp sector suggests mixed sentiment. Investment decisions should consider global pulp price trends and risks.

Analyst Certifications and Disclosures

• Certifications: Speakers and analysts have certifications ensuring personal views reflect recommendations; compensation not tied to specific views.
• Disclosures: Jefferies has potential conflicts of interest due to business relationships with companies; report contains general insights, not specific investment advice. Disclosure applies to various regions with regulatory compliance noted.